基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

发布时间：2018-07-29 07:33

【摘要】：对腐蚀油气管道系统的剩余寿命进行预测可以为优化维修决策方案提供依据。考虑到油气管道不同状态下的腐蚀,将逆高斯随机过程理论引入油气管道腐蚀评估领域,提出逆高斯-状态空间油气管道腐蚀退化过程模型和维修决策优化模型。首先根据其腐蚀机理建立逆高斯-状态空间退化过程模型,运用经验最大化算法与粒子滤波算法相结合的参数估计方法对模型中的参数进行求解,得出腐蚀油气管道的剩余寿命分布函数和概率密度函数;进而建立腐蚀油气管道的维修决策优化模型,计算出模型最优的维修更换时间和最小费用,制定出较合理的维修方案;最后用腐蚀油气管道的实验数据对模型进行验证。应用实例表明,优化模型用于油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化是可行的。
[Abstract]:Prediction of residual life of corroded oil and gas pipeline system can provide basis for optimal maintenance decision scheme. Considering the corrosion of oil and gas pipelines under different conditions, the inverse Gao Si stochastic process theory is introduced into the field of corrosion evaluation of oil and gas pipelines, and the corrosion degradation process model and maintenance decision optimization model of oil and gas pipelines in inverse Gao Si state space are proposed. The inverse Gao Si-state space degradation process model is established according to its corrosion mechanism. The parameter estimation method combining empirical maximization algorithm and particle filter algorithm is used to solve the parameters of the model. The residual life distribution function and probability density function of corroded oil and gas pipeline are obtained, and then the maintenance decision optimization model of corroded oil and gas pipeline is established, the optimal maintenance replacement time and minimum cost of the model are calculated, and a more reasonable maintenance scheme is worked out. Finally, the model is verified by the experimental data of corroded oil and gas pipeline. The application examples show that it is feasible to apply the optimization model to the corrosion assessment and maintenance optimization of oil and gas pipelines.
【作者单位】：西安建筑科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(No.61271278) 陕西省社会科学基金项目(2015R13) 陕西省自然科学基金项目(2016JM6023) 陕西省教育厅自然专项基金项目(16JK1465)资助
【分类号】：TE988.2

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