基于IAHP和灾变链式方法的城市油气管道风险诱因与预警研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 06:38

【摘要】：城市油气管道穿越城区街道、建筑和居民区等特殊地段,保障其安全运行具有重要意义。为实现城市油气管道风险早期预警,基于城市与野外长输油气管道风险对比分析,识别城市油气管道风险预警指标;建立城市油气管道风险预警指标体系,采用区间层次分析法对预警指标重要度进行定量排序,确定关键预警监测点;并依据灾变链式理论,构建城市油气管道重大事故灾变链式模型,研究管道风险演化过程,发现灾变前兆进行断链减灾。研究结果表明:"腐蚀"及"第三方破坏"占据城市油气管道失效致因比重最大,风险因子"油气管道与市政管道距离"以及"城市工程施工作业"应作为城市油气管道重点监测点。同时,围绕城市油气管道风险预警需致力于孕源断链。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of urban oil and gas pipelines through special areas such as streets, buildings and residential areas. In order to realize the early warning of urban oil and gas pipeline risk, based on the comparative analysis of urban and field oil and gas pipeline risk, the risk early warning index of urban oil and gas pipeline is identified, and the early warning index system of urban oil and gas pipeline risk is established. Using interval Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to sort the importance of early warning index quantitatively, to determine the key early warning monitoring points, and according to the catastrophe chain theory, to construct the chain model of urban oil and gas pipeline major accidents, and to study the evolution process of pipeline risk. It is found that the disaster precursor can be reduced by breaking the chain. The results show that "corrosion" and "third party damage" occupy the largest proportion of urban oil and gas pipeline failure. The risk factors such as "distance between oil and gas pipelines and municipal pipelines" and "urban engineering construction operations" should be regarded as the key monitoring points of urban oil and gas pipelines. At the same time, the urban oil and gas pipeline risk early warning should be committed to pregnant source broken chain.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;
【基金】：山东省科技发展计划项目(2014GSF120014)
【分类号】：TE88

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