液化天然气接收站风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 18:46

【摘要】：为实现能源供给多元化和国内部分地区供气调峰,越来越多的LNG接收站在沿海地区建设起来。由于LNG具有易燃、易爆、易挥发等特性,国内外LNG储罐、LNG船等泄漏、爆炸事故频繁发生,如何保证LNG接收站安全运行是摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。首先,通过对LNG接收站工艺流程的分析,按功能将其分为五大区块,分别为码头接卸区、LNG储罐区、BOG处理区、仪器仪表控制区、气化外输计量区,并建立各区块故障树。在故障树辨识的基础上,根据各区块特点分析其主要设备,建立适应性较强的LNG接收站各区块失效可能性评价指标体系。其次,在确定失效可能性等级中,考虑到传统评价方法中只分析失效可能性等级,未涉及失效可能性的发展趋势预测,存在一定片面性。因此,将物元可拓法与五元联系数法相结合,不仅可以得到失效可能性等级,同时能分析其发展趋势,结合失效后果即为对风险等级的量化和风险发展趋势的预测。然后,通过对LNG接收站失效后果模式分析后,得到LNG接收站典型事故后果类型。采用PHAST软件对典型事故后果模拟并根据火灾爆炸事故模型提出的以人员伤亡、直接经济损失和无形损失综合分析事故后果严重度。最后,对江苏LNG接收站进行风险评价,评价结果符合目前接收站运行现状。与传统方法相比,该评价方法同时考虑风险静态现状与动态发展情况,能更好对风险作出有效的管理。结合指标评价法的简易操作性和后果模拟的真实性,评价过程可以较好的被底层技术员工掌握,评价结果更加符合实际情况。
[Abstract]:In order to realize the diversification of energy supply and the peak-shaving of gas supply in parts of China, more and more LNG receiving stations are built in coastal areas. Because LNG has the characteristics of flammability, explosive and volatilization, the leakage of domestic and foreign LNG storage tanks, LNG ships and explosion accidents occur frequently, so how to ensure the safe operation of LNG receiving station is an important subject in front of us. Firstly, by analyzing the process flow of LNG receiving station, it is divided into five blocks according to its function, namely, terminal connection and unloading area, LNG storage area, BOG treatment area, instrument control area, gasification and measurement area, and the fault tree of each block is established. On the basis of fault tree identification, the main equipment of each block is analyzed according to the characteristics of each block, and an index system for evaluating the failure probability of each block of LNG receiving station is established. Secondly, in determining the failure probability level, considering that the traditional evaluation method only analyzes the failure probability level, but does not involve the development trend prediction of the failure possibility, there is a certain one-sidedness. Therefore, the combination of matter-element extension method and five-element connection number method can not only obtain the failure probability grade, but also analyze its development trend. The combination of failure consequence is the quantification of risk grade and the prediction of risk development trend. Then, by analyzing the failure consequence mode of LNG receiving station, the typical accident consequence type of LNG receiving station is obtained. Based on the model of fire and explosion accident, the severity of accident consequence is analyzed by using PHAST software to analyze the severity of accident consequence based on casualties, direct economic loss and intangible loss. Finally, the risk evaluation of Jiangsu LNG receiving station is carried out. Compared with the traditional method, the evaluation method can better manage the risk by considering both the static and dynamic development of the risk. Combined with the simple operation of index evaluation method and the authenticity of consequence simulation, the evaluation process can be better mastered by the bottom technical staff, and the evaluation results are more in line with the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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