成品油消费税税率改变对消费需求的影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-21 11:13

【摘要】：随着人均可支配收入的提高和工业化进程加快,我国对成品油的需求也逐年上涨,2014年全国汽油的消费量为9776万吨,柴油消费量为17165万吨。成品油对经济发展起着举足轻重的作用,特别是对工业、农业、仓储及运输业尤为重要。从长远来看,我国的成品油消费需求增长空间仍然较大。但是,油品消费需求的增加,不仅带来了经济的快速发展,也产生了负的环境外部效应,如碳氧化物、氮氧化物、二氧化硫、颗粒物等空气污染物。如何在经济发展与治理环境污染之间寻找一个平衡点呢?为环境付费,让环境作为一种成本进入到消费者视线中,或许是解决之道。那么消费税作为一种环境税是否能够有效影响成品油消费行为?影响成品油消费行为的因素主要有哪些呢?本文以成品油子目录中的汽油和柴油消费税为例,研究消费税和消费需求之间的关系。考虑非理性消费行为,将消费税和不含消费税价格区别开来,以定量研究它们对于消费行为的影响程度。针对成品油消费税和消费需求之间的关系,本文利用全国总的时间序列消费数据和20个省(市)的面板消费数据,综合考虑影响消费行为的各种因素:不含消费税价格、单位税额(税率)、人均可支配收入、物价指数、人均汽车拥有量、民生支出水平、城市化率、失业率、政策虚拟变量等。在多元线性回归的基础之上,通过建立双对数线性模型,用普通最小二乘估计模型系数,得出回归方程,然后分析价格需求弹性和税收需求弹性。在时序数据模型中,根据模型调整可决系数、t检验伴随p值、回归系数标准误等方面挑选拟合效果较好的回归模型,然后对模型进行了异方差、自相关等计量经济学检验,再通过工具变量法,用国际原油价格替换成品油价格,验证成品油价格的外生性问题,以确保模型正确建立。在面板数据模型中,同样采用面板数据普通最小二乘方法估计全解释变量模型的回归系数,然后通过捕获不同地区的不同异方差性,对全解释变量模型进行了改进。最后对模型结果进行了原因分析。文章通过建立成品油市场的双对数模型,得出不含税价格和税率对消费需求的影响均为负,并且税率改变对消费需求的影响要大于不含税价格变动。从弹性角度来说,即为税收的需求弹性大于不含税价格的需求弹性,税收具有凸显性。人均可支配收入和时间虚拟变量对消费需求的影响也较显著。面板数据捕获了不同地区之间的异方差性,在一定程度上是对时序数据的改进。对比分析汽油市场和柴油市场的不同回归系数,文章发现税收的凸显程度不仅随地区发生变化,还随不同的消费市场发生变化。因此成品油消费税能够有效影响消费行为,减少空气中碳排放量,达到“节能减排”、治理环境污染的目的。
[Abstract]:With the increase of per capita disposable income and the acceleration of industrialization, the demand for refined oil in China has increased year by year. In 2014, the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in China was 97.76 million tons and 171.65 million tons respectively. Oil products play an important role in economic development, especially in industry, agriculture, storage and transportation. In the long-term, our country's refined oil consumption demand growth space is still large. However, the increasing demand for oil products not only brings about rapid economic development, but also produces negative environmental externalities, such as carbon oxides, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter and other air pollutants. How to find a balance between economic development and environmental pollution control? Paying for the environment, let the environment as a cost to consumers, may be the solution. So, as an environmental tax, can consumption tax affect the consumption behavior of refined oil effectively? What are the main factors that affect the consumption behavior of refined oil? In this paper, the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand is studied by taking the consumption tax of gasoline and diesel in the subcatalogue of refined oil as an example. Considering irrational consumption behavior, the price of consumption tax is distinguished from that without consumption tax in order to quantitatively study their influence on consumption behavior. In view of the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand of refined oil, this paper makes use of total time series consumption data and panel consumption data of 20 provinces (cities) to consider all kinds of factors affecting consumption behavior: excluding consumption tax price. Unit tax (tax rate), per capita disposable income, price index, per capita car ownership, people's livelihood expenditure level, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, policy fictitious variable, etc. On the basis of multivariate linear regression, a double-logarithmic linear model is established, and the regression equation is obtained by estimating the coefficients of the model with ordinary least squares. Then, the elasticity of price demand and tax demand is analyzed. In the time series data model, according to the adjustment of the determinable coefficient, the t test accompanying p value, the standard error of regression coefficient and so on, the regression model with good fitting effect is selected, and then the econometrics tests of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and so on are carried out. Then, by means of tool variable method, the price of refined oil is replaced by the price of international crude oil, and the exogenous problem of oil price is verified to ensure the establishment of the model correctly. In the panel data model, the general least square method of panel data is also used to estimate the regression coefficients of the fully interpreted variable model, and then the full interpretation variable model is improved by capturing the different heteroscedasticity of different regions. Finally, the causes of the model results are analyzed. By establishing the double logarithmic model of the oil products market, the paper concludes that the influence of the price without tax and the tax rate on the consumption demand is negative, and the influence of the change of tax rate on the consumption demand is greater than the change of the price without tax. From the point of view of elasticity, that is, the demand elasticity of tax is greater than that of price without tax, and tax is prominent. The influence of per capita disposable income and time virtual variables on consumption demand is also significant. Panel data capture heteroscedasticity between different regions, to some extent, the improvement of temporal data. By comparing and analyzing the different regression coefficients of gasoline market and diesel market, it is found that the degree of tax salience varies not only with different regions, but also with different consumer markets. Therefore, the consumption tax of refined oil can effectively affect consumption behavior, reduce carbon emissions in the air, achieve "energy saving and emission reduction", and control environmental pollution.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F812.42

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