基于MAS的我国海上能源运输通道安全性仿真研究

发布时间：2018-10-23 19:53

【摘要】：能源安全问题是我国社会和经济发展面临的战略性重大问题,在我国石油进口量和对外依存度逐年升高的背景下,石油作为主要能源品种,其进口安全是我国能源安全保障中最重要的环节。海上运输是石油进口的主要运输方式,针对我国的海上能源运输通道,通过对石油运输企业的实地调研和数据采集,在总结文献的基础上明确了我国海上石油运输通道的现状,分析了影响我国海上能源通道安全的因素,将安全因素分为了固有安全因素和现实安全因素两大类并进行汇总。针对多主体系统理论和方法进行了梳理,明确了多主体系统理论的概念、发展过程、主体架构、建模方法和仿真过程,并在此基础上,在NetLogo仿真平台中构建了我国石油进口中东航线的多主体仿真模型,设计了仿真方案,开发了仿真程序,进行了仿真实验并对实验结果进行分析。仿真结果表明,仿真设计合理,基本符合现实情况,油轮数量的增加比例会低于石油运输总量的增加比例,以海盗为代表的现实安全因素和以热带气旋为代表的固有安全因素会对海上能源通道安全性带来非常明显的影响,海盗和热带气旋数量增加比例越大,带来的油运总量的变化比率会加速增大。
[Abstract]:Energy security is a strategic and important problem in China's social and economic development. Under the background of increasing oil import and dependence on foreign countries year by year, petroleum is the main kind of energy. Its import security is the most important link in the energy security guarantee of our country. Maritime transportation is the main transportation mode of oil import. In view of our country's marine energy transportation channel, through the field investigation and data collection of oil transportation enterprises, the present situation of China's offshore oil transportation channel is clarified on the basis of summarizing the literature. The factors affecting the safety of offshore energy channels in China are analyzed. The safety factors are divided into two categories: inherent safety factors and realistic safety factors. The theory and method of multi-agent system are combed out, and the concept, development process, agent architecture, modeling method and simulation process of multi-agent system theory are clarified. The multi-agent simulation model of China's oil import Middle East route is constructed on the NetLogo simulation platform. The simulation scheme is designed, the simulation program is developed, the simulation experiment is carried out and the experimental results are analyzed. The simulation results show that the design of the simulation is reasonable and the proportion of increase in the number of oil tankers will be lower than that of the total quantity of oil transportation. The actual security factors represented by pirates and the inherent security factors represented by tropical cyclones will have a very obvious impact on the safety of offshore energy channels. The greater the proportion of piracy and tropical cyclones is, The rate of change in the amount of oil shipped will accelerate.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TE88

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