寿光—东营天然气支干线工程项目的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-10-29 18:45

【摘要】：近年来,中国政府高度重视石油和天然气管道的运输,到2012年中国管道的总里程快速发展已经达到了7.1万千米。管道运输已成为陆上油气运输的主要方式。随着西气东输二线天然气主干管道的建设,以及西部石油(成品油)管道项目的运营,我国研究范围内的石油和天然气管网已迅速扩大。然而,现有管道风险依旧存在,不排除一些安全隐患的问题,相应的监管体制和法律法规体系不完善。寿光-东营天然气支干线工程位于山东省潍坊市和东营市建设单位为山东鲁润天然气有限公。该工程项目预计于2015年1月输气使用,使用后输气量达10.03亿立方。天然气管线风险管理是一项重要的任务,其一定要在项目的进行之前有一个整体的评价,以便于进行项目的计划、决策与风险控制。有效的风险评估能够促进项目承建单位的各类资源合理配置,规避投资风险,充分发挥投资效益最大化。本文采用列举法、风险因素预先分析法、事件树分析等方法,对寿光—东营天然气支干线工程实施过程中的风险管理进行了研究,在对相关风险管理理论进行分析的基础上,系统分析了实施项目的风险识别、评估、应对和监控,最后对开发项目风险管理进行评价。通过本文的研究,旨在找出项目实施中的风险并进行合理管控,进而确保项目的顺利实施。本文首先系统论述了管道项目风险管理的基本的理论体系与依据,并对寿光-东营天然气工程建设项目进行了一定的分析。之后具体开展了寿光-东营天然气工程建设项目的风险识别、风险评价,从内部风险、外部风险对项目作出了具体的评估,最后提出了具体的风险应对措施。风险在寿光-东营天然气管道工程建设中从决策阶段到投产始终存在,通过对该项目的风险评价结果中可以看出,此项目的总体风险级别是高;在工程项目的六大类风险当中,从高到低进行依次排序建设风险最高,其次是经济风险和融资风险,再次是政策风险,审批风险的风险程度一般,风险决策风险程度是最小的。本文在评估之后提出了工程风险应对具体措施,使风险得到全过程控制,确保寿光-东营天然气工程建设项目顺利实施,达到预期效益。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the Chinese government has attached great importance to the transportation of oil and gas pipelines. By 2012, the total mileage of the pipeline in China had reached 71,000 kilometers. Pipeline transportation has become the main way of onshore oil and gas transportation. With the construction of natural gas trunk pipeline in West to East Gas Transmission Line and the operation of West China Petroleum (refined Oil) pipeline project, the oil and gas pipeline network in our country has been expanded rapidly. However, the existing pipeline risks still exist, not excluding some hidden safety problems, the corresponding regulatory system and laws and regulations system is not perfect. Shouguang-Dongying natural gas branch project is located in Weifang City and Dongying City Shandong Province construction unit for Shandong Lurun Natural Gas Co. The project is expected to be used in January 2015, after the use of 1.003 billion cubic meters of gas. Risk management of natural gas pipeline is an important task. It must have an overall evaluation before the project is carried out, so as to facilitate the planning, decision making and risk control of the project. Effective risk assessment can promote the rational allocation of all kinds of resources, avoid investment risk and maximize investment benefit. In this paper, the risk management in the implementation of Shouguang-Dongying Natural Gas Branch Project is studied by the methods of enumeration, pre-analysis of risk factors and event tree analysis, and based on the analysis of relevant risk management theory, The risk identification, evaluation, response and monitoring of the implementation project are systematically analyzed. Finally, the risk management of the development project is evaluated. Through the research of this paper, the aim is to find out the risk in the implementation of the project and manage it reasonably, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. In this paper, the basic theory system and basis of pipeline project risk management are systematically discussed, and the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project is analyzed. Then the risk identification and risk evaluation of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas construction project are carried out. The concrete assessment of the project is made from the internal risk and external risk. Finally, the concrete risk countermeasures are put forward. The risk always exists in the construction of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas pipeline project from the decision-making stage to the commissioning. The overall risk level of the project is high through the risk evaluation results of the project. Among the six kinds of risks, the construction risk is the highest, the economic risk and financing risk is the next, the policy risk is the second, the risk degree of the examination and approval risk is general, and the risk degree of risk decision is the smallest. This paper puts forward the concrete measures to deal with the project risk after evaluation, so that the risk can be controlled in the whole process to ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project and achieve the expected benefit.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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