信息不确定的油田开发方案多属性决策研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 10:10

【摘要】：油田开发是一项投资巨大、风险性很强的工作,而“油田开发方案”是油田开发总体效果的综合规划,因此油田开发方案的优劣直接影响着油田开发效益的好坏。油田开发方案的评价是一个多准则的决策问题,由于备择方案各指标具有不可公度性,且备择方案的某些指标又往往相互矛盾,因此给决策带来困难,决策是否正确,是否合理影响油气开发的发展。有关油田开发方案决策的研究已经有很多,但大多数研究都以经济利得与损失为考核指标,虽然对油田开发的进行具有一定积极的参考价值,但不足以体现油田开发项目所能带来的其它方面的影响,仅从经济角度去评价一个开发方案是片面的。为了更加全面的评价油田开发的价值所在,本文提出用多属性决策研究油田开发方案的决策问题,多属性决策理论研究的就是具有多个属性(指标)的有限决策方案的排序问题,借以使决策者针对油田现在所处的内、外部环境,依据自身资源、技术、资金、人力等条件,实现油田开发的全局管理,为油田开发管理者提供依据。文章从油田开发方案的多属性评价入手,通过分析油田开发的多属性特点,根据实际情况和众多参考资料设计出了一套涵盖了经济财务、生态损失、地区社会和开发风险的多层次指标体系。提出了基于区间模糊数的AHP,通过区间数与层次分析法结合,计算指标权重,并将单一属性值扩展为区间数,运用GRA进行方案优选,能够充分考虑到实际情况中属性指标信息模糊的特点,最后根据具体案例进行实证研究,充分肯定了该方法的科学性和可行性。
[Abstract]:Oilfield development is a work with huge investment and strong risk, and "oilfield development plan" is the comprehensive planning of the overall effect of oilfield development. Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of oilfield development plan directly affect the benefit of oilfield development. The evaluation of oilfield development scheme is a decision problem of multiple criteria. Because of the incommensurate degree of each index of the alternative scheme and the contradiction of some indexes of the alternative scheme, it brings difficulties to the decision-making and whether the decision is correct or not. Whether it is reasonable to affect the development of oil and gas development. There has been a lot of research on the decision making of oilfield development scheme, but most of the studies are based on economic gain and loss, although it has some positive reference value for oilfield development. However, it is not enough to reflect the impact of other aspects of oilfield development projects. It is unilateral to evaluate a development plan from an economic point of view. In order to evaluate the value of oilfield development more comprehensively, this paper puts forward the decision making problem of oilfield development scheme with multi-attribute decision. The theory of multi-attribute decision making studies the sequencing problem of finite decision making schemes with multiple attributes (indicators), so that the decision makers can make decision makers according to their own resources, technology, funds, manpower and other conditions in the present internal and external environment of the oil field. To realize the global management of oilfield development and provide the basis for oilfield development manager. This paper starts with the multi-attribute evaluation of oilfield development scheme, through analyzing the multi-attribute characteristics of oilfield development, according to the actual situation and many reference materials, designs a set of covering economic, financial and ecological losses. The multi-level index system of regional social and development risk. In this paper, AHP, based on interval fuzzy number is proposed to calculate the index weight through the combination of interval number and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the single attribute value is extended to interval number, and GRA is used to select the optimal scheme. It can fully take into account the characteristics of fuzzy attribute index information in the actual situation. Finally, according to the specific case study, the scientific and feasibility of the method is fully affirmed.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22

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