车用替代燃料对炼油业的影响及对策研究

发布时间：2018-11-19 10:48

【摘要】：我国炼油业经过几十年的发展已取得了比较明显的成果,但目前仍存在一些问题。比较突出的问题是无序发展,一些企业为抢占市场,收购地方炼厂进行改扩建,这些情况不利于炼油行业的合理布局,导致了炼油能力过剩。同时,随着我国经济进入新常态,成品油需求增速放缓,并且随着汽车保有量迅速增加及人们环保意识的提高,石油质燃料消耗所产生的空气污染和二氧化碳排放等问题日益受到关注。为了缓解能源危机,减少二氧化碳排放,车用替代燃料发展得到了政府推动和政策扶持,发展迅猛。毫无疑问如果炼油业忽视这些环境要素的变化,投产项目仍盲目增加并达到高峰产能,全国汽柴油必将会供大于求,导致炼油厂出现大量资产闲置,效益不佳甚至会出现关停的局面。因此正视车用替代燃料对我国炼油业的影响,量化车用替代燃料在汽柴油产量及原油加工量等方面对于炼油业的影响,在新的形势下调整产业结构,合理规划产能进而促进我国炼油业继续健康的发展将具有十分重要的意义。首先,通过介绍论文的研究背景和国内外研究现状,揭示出论文研究的理论和现实意义。其次,分析了我国车用替代燃料和炼油业发展现状及趋势。再次,运用向量自回归模型及脉冲影响函数等分别对车用替代燃料在汽柴油产量、原油加工量和原油加工能力方面对炼油业的影响进行了实证分析:在研究车用替代燃料对汽柴油产量和原油加工量的影响时,以一系列检验(单位根检验、协整检验、稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验)为基础,建立了向量自回归模型,并在模型的基础上,利用脉冲响应函数研究车用替代燃料的冲击对汽柴油产量和原油加工量的影响,利用方差分解方法分析评价不同结构冲击的重要性,并以此为基础对车用替代燃料替代量、汽柴油产量、原油加工量进行了预测,量化我国车用替代燃料对炼油业的影响;在研究车用替代燃料对原油加工能力的影响时,根据原油加工量的预测值和合理的炼厂开工率,对原油加工能力提出了合理化的预测。最后,根据实证分析的结果从原油加工能力、原油加工量和汽柴油产量三个方面为炼油业应对车用替代燃料的快速发展提出相关对策建议,以期为我国炼油业调整产业结构,合理规划产能提供一些借鉴及参考。
[Abstract]:After decades of development, China's oil refining industry has made obvious achievements, but there are still some problems. In order to seize the market, some enterprises buy local refineries for reconstruction and expansion, which is not conducive to the rational layout of the refining industry, resulting in excess refining capacity. At the same time, as China's economy enters the new normal, the growth rate of demand for refined oil products slows down, and with the rapid increase in vehicle holdings and the improvement of people's awareness of environmental protection, Air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions caused by petroleum fuel consumption have attracted more and more attention. In order to alleviate the energy crisis and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the development of alternative fuels for vehicles has been promoted and supported by the government. There is no doubt that if the oil refining industry ignores the changes in these environmental factors and the production projects continue to increase blindly and reach the peak capacity, the national gasoline and diesel oil supply will certainly exceed demand, leading to a large number of idle assets in the refineries. The benefits will not be good and even shut down. Therefore, facing squarely the influence of automobile alternative fuel on China's oil refining industry, quantifying the impact of vehicle alternative fuel on the oil refining industry in terms of gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity, and adjusting the industrial structure under the new situation, It is of great significance to plan production capacity reasonably and promote the development of oil refining industry in China. Firstly, the theoretical and practical significance of the research is revealed by introducing the research background and the current research situation at home and abroad. Secondly, the development status and trend of automobile alternative fuel and oil refining industry in China are analyzed. Thirdly, using the vector autoregressive model and pulse influence function, respectively, the output of vehicle alternative fuel in gasoline and diesel oil is studied. The impact of crude oil processing capacity and crude oil processing capacity on oil refining industry is analyzed empirically. When studying the effects of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity, a series of tests (unit root test, cointegration test) are used to study the effects of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity. On the basis of stability test and Granger causality test, a vector autoregressive model is established. On the basis of the model, the impulse response function is used to study the impact of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing. The importance of evaluating the impact of different structures is analyzed by variance decomposition method, and on the basis of this, the substitution quantity of vehicle alternative fuel, the output of gasoline and diesel oil and the quantity of crude oil processing are forecasted, and the influence of alternative fuel for vehicle on the oil refining industry in China is quantified. Based on the prediction of crude oil processing capacity and the reasonable operating rate of refinery, the rational prediction of crude oil processing capacity is put forward when studying the effect of vehicle alternative fuel on crude oil processing capacity. Finally, according to the results of the empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the oil refining industry to adjust the industrial structure of the oil refining industry in the light of the three aspects of crude oil processing capacity, crude oil processing capacity and gasoline and diesel output, in order for the oil refining industry to respond to the rapid development of alternative fuels for vehicles. Reasonable planning capacity to provide some reference and reference.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE626.2;F426.22

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