基于可拓理论的石油化工码头储罐区安全预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-12-29 18:05

【摘要】：石油化工码头储罐区作为港口危险化学品储存、转运的重要场所,一旦发生泄漏,往往会引发火灾、爆炸、中毒等灾难性事故。近年来国内外多次出现的大型石油化工码头储罐区火灾、爆炸事故引发了国家对储罐区安全的重视,为了保障石油化工码头储罐区安全运行,降低事故发生的概率,减少经济损失,必须建立石油化工码头储罐区安全预警系统。因此,本文首先在对比分析石油化工码头储罐区和安全领域常用预警模型优缺点的基础上,确定了利用基于可拓理论的预警模型对石油化工码头储罐区安全进行预警,并构建了基于可拓理论的石油化工码头储罐区安全预警模型;其次,依据指标体系建立原则,并结合现场工程技术人员、专家意见和现有研究成果,从人、机、环境、管理四方面建立了石油化工码头储罐区安全预警指标体系,并采用综合层次分析法和熵权法的组合赋权法计算该体系涉及的4个一级指标和29个二级指标的综合权重;最后,将基于可拓理论的石油化工码头储罐区安全预警模型应用于天津港某石油化工码头储罐区进行实例分析,判断该石油化工码头储罐区的安全状况。基于Lab VIEW虚拟仪器平台,对石油化工码头储罐区安全预警系统进行编译,实现更加迅速、准确的进行石油化工码头储罐区安全预警。该系统可代替人工计算,通过输入各专家对各预警指标的评分可得出各指标的综合权重;输入各项预警指标的现场检查数据,模拟可拓理论预警模型的的预警判断过程,最终输出储罐区的预警等级,实现石油化工码头储罐区安全状况的预警判断。将该系统应用于天津港某石油化工码头储罐区进行预警分析,得出的结论是:该石油化工码头储罐区的预警等级为无警,安全状况良好,同时也证明了本文建立的预警模型在石油化工码头储罐区安全预警方面的可行性和实用性。
[Abstract]:As an important place for the storage and transportation of dangerous chemicals in port, the storage area of petrochemical wharf often causes catastrophic accidents such as fire, explosion, poisoning and so on. In recent years, there have been many fires in the storage area of large petrochemical terminals at home and abroad, and the explosion accident has caused the state to attach importance to the safety of the storage areas. In order to ensure the safe operation of the storage areas of petrochemical terminals, the probability of accidents is reduced. In order to reduce economic losses, it is necessary to establish a safety early warning system for the storage area of petrochemical wharf. Therefore, based on the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used early warning models in the petrochemical terminal storage area and the safety field, this paper determines that the early warning model based on the extension theory can be used for the early warning of the petrochemical terminal storage area. Based on extension theory, the safety early warning model of petrochemical terminal storage area is constructed. Secondly, according to the establishment principle of the index system, combined with the field engineering technical personnel, the expert opinion and the existing research result, has established the petrochemical wharf storage tank area safety early warning index system from the human, the machine, the environment, the management four aspects, The combined weight method of synthetic Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method is used to calculate the comprehensive weights of the four primary indexes and 29 second-level indexes involved in the system. Finally, the safety early warning model of petrochemical terminal storage area based on extension theory is applied to a petrochemical terminal storage area of Tianjin Port for practical analysis to judge the safety situation of the petrochemical terminal storage area. Based on Lab VIEW virtual instrument platform, this paper compiles the safety early warning system of petrochemical wharf storage area, and realizes more quickly and accurately the safety early warning of petrochemical wharf storage tank area. The system can replace manual calculation, and the comprehensive weight of each index can be obtained by inputting each expert's score to each early warning index. Input the field inspection data of each early warning index, simulate the early warning judgment process of extension theory early warning model, and finally output the early warning grade of storage area, realize the early warning judgment of the safety condition of storage tank area of petrochemical wharf. The system is applied to the storage area of a petrochemical terminal in Tianjin Port for early warning analysis. The conclusion is that the warning level of the storage tank area of the petrochemical terminal is no alarm and the safety condition is good. At the same time, the feasibility and practicability of the early warning model in the storage area of petrochemical terminal are proved.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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