基于实物期权的页岩气开发投资决策研究

发布时间：2019-03-29 19:43

【摘要】：页岩气是一种迅速发展的非常规天然气资源,其在我国的资源储量十分巨大。在当前我国石油对外依存度不断上升的严峻形势下,页岩气资源的勘探开发利用对缓解我国能源缺口压力至关重要。然而,页岩气的资源特征、开采方式、产气规律和常规天然气资源差别较大,具有高技术、高投入、高风险的特点,使得页岩气开发项目投资具有极高的不确定性和风险性,这些不确定性因素贯穿了页岩气开发项目的整个生命周期,给企业在进行投资决策时对投资时机的选择带来了难题。为保证页岩气开发项目投资的有效性以及促进页岩气资源商业化开发,对不确定条件下页岩气项目投资决策时机进行研究具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对实物期权的基本理论以及相关理论的研究和发展进行综述,并对页岩气资源特征进行阐述分析。其次,从页岩气开发投资特点、不确定性以及其实物期权特性和期权价值等方面对页岩气开发投资的实物期权进行分析,并阐明页岩气开发投资引入实物期权的必要性。再次,运用实物期权理论构建基于延迟实物期权的投资决策模型,对页岩气开发投资项目进行经济评价,并运用算例说明模型的有效性。最后,对页岩气开发投资项目的投资时机进行讨论,利用偏微分方法构建页岩气开发投资项目的最佳投资决策时机模型,将投资决策时机由定性选择转变为定量选择,并用具体的算例验证实物期权方法在页岩气开发投资项目应用中的有效性和可行性。页岩气已在全球能源领域扮演着越来越重要的角色,占油气使用的比重在不断上升,开发利用页岩气已经成为世界主要页岩气资源大国和地区的共同选择。本文的研究将有利于推进实物期权理论在页岩气开发投资领域的应用,为解决页岩气开发投资时机决策难题提供了新途径和思路,对形成科学的页岩气开发投资决策机制,促进页岩气资源商业化开发具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Shale gas is a rapidly developing unconventional natural gas resource, and its reserves in China are very large. The exploration and utilization of shale gas resources is very important to alleviate the pressure of energy gap in China under the severe situation of the increasing dependence of petroleum on the outside of China. However, the characteristics of shale gas resources, mining methods, gas production laws and conventional natural gas resources are quite different, with the characteristics of high technology, high investment and high risk, which makes the investment of shale gas development projects have extremely high uncertainty and risk. These uncertainties run through the whole life cycle of shale gas development project, which brings difficult problems for enterprises to choose the investment timing when making investment decisions. In order to ensure the effectiveness of shale gas development project investment and promote the commercial development of shale gas resources, it is of great practical significance to study the timing of shale gas project investment decision-making under uncertain conditions. In this paper, the basic theory of real option and the research and development of related theory are summarized, and the characteristics of shale gas resources are analyzed. Secondly, this paper analyzes the real options of shale gas development investment from the aspects of shale gas development investment characteristics, uncertainty, real option characteristics and option value, and clarifies the necessity of introducing real options into shale gas development investment. Thirdly, the real option theory is used to construct the investment decision-making model based on delayed real option, and the economic evaluation of shale gas development investment project is carried out, and an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. Finally, the investment timing of shale gas development investment project is discussed, the optimal investment decision time model of shale gas development investment project is constructed by partial differential method, and the investment decision time is changed from qualitative choice to quantitative choice. An example is given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the real option method in shale gas development investment projects. Shale gas has been playing a more and more important role in the global energy field, and the proportion of oil and gas use is increasing. The exploitation and utilization of shale gas has become the common choice of the major shale gas resource countries and regions in the world. The research in this paper will be helpful to promote the application of real option theory in shale gas development and investment field, and provide a new way and train of thought for solving the difficult problem of timing and decision-making for shale gas development investment, and for forming a scientific decision-making mechanism for shale gas development investment. It is of great significance to promote the commercial exploitation of shale gas resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F224;F426.22

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