海洋平台人员应急撤离风险分析与控制研究
发布时间：2019-06-25 19:10
【摘要】：海洋油气开发是世界上公认风险最大的行业之一。海洋平台作为油气勘探开采的主要生产设施,所处环境恶劣,事故发生概率较高。在事故发生时应急撤离扮演保障人员生命安全的关键角色,因此开展相关研究对于提升我国整体海洋油气应急水平具有重要意义。本文以海洋平台人员应急撤离过程为研究对象,结合安全生产监督管理总局2012年安全科技“四个一批”项目“南海深水油气钻井风险管理及应急关键技术研究”(2012-507)及中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(14CX06130A),开展海洋平台应急撤离风险分析与控制研究。1海洋平台应急撤离风险致因分析统计分析海洋平台应急撤离事故案例,判别燃爆、平台倾覆、热带气旋是应急撤离的主要诱发场景。结合应急撤离方式多样性特点,基于TOPSIS构造海洋平台应急撤离方式决策模型,通过工程实例验证应用价值。以保障人员生命安全为目标,建立海洋平台应急撤离响应模型,划分子阶段。采用EER HAZOP辨识不同阶段人因、设备、环境和管理方面的风险因素,并利用DEMATEL量化因素逻辑关系,以方差和均值为依据设定合适阈值,绘制风险因素主要关联路径图。2海洋平台应急撤离人因可靠性定量分析结合模糊数学和CREAM方法,构造海洋平台应急撤离人因可靠性风险分析模型,明确人因可靠性任务分析步骤、共同绩效条件评判标准、控制模式模糊函数及量化规则。基于事故调研结果和国外已有案例,重点定量评估泄漏燃爆、平台倾斜、台风三种典型事故场景的人因绩效,预测人因失误概率、筛选应急撤离关键步骤、辨识主要失效模式及受损认知功能。3海洋平台应急撤离事故耦合风险分析以火灾事故为例,结合工程资料建立海洋平台疏散仿真数值模型,确定火灾风险和人员疏散风险临界准则。采用FDS软件探究温度、热辐射、能见度、气体浓度等主要指标的变化规律和危险区域范围,确定主要疏散出口的可用安全时间和最小人员安全半径。进一步借助EVAC模块对比量化火灾事故对海洋平台人员疏散阶段的风险耦合程度;为评估疏散路线动态风险,建立基于图论的海洋平台应急撤离路径拓扑模型,分析疏散路径网络可靠性,结果表明平台不同区域之间存在较为紧密换联关系。基于Dijkstra算法寻求不同位置前往不同集合点的最短路径方案,并给出考虑火灾障碍、拥挤堵塞等常见情景的最优路径方案。4海洋平台应急撤离安全屏障分析与优化利用安全屏障技术理念,建立海洋平台应急撤离响应安全屏障模型,划分屏障功能,辨识屏障作用路径,确定系统薄弱环节。结合RFID、ZigBee等信息化技术,提出开发海洋平台人员应急管理系统的屏障优化方案,能有效实现人员定位管理、疏散实时仿真、路径优化设计的功能集成,并完善系统框架设计。
[Abstract]:Offshore oil and gas development is recognized as one of the most risky industries in the world. Offshore platform, as the main production facility of oil and gas exploration and exploitation, is in a bad environment and has a high probability of accident. Emergency evacuation plays a key role in ensuring the safety of personnel in the event of accidents, so it is of great significance to carry out relevant research to improve the overall emergency level of offshore oil and gas in China. In this paper, the emergency evacuation process of offshore platform personnel is taken as the research object, combined with the 2012 Safety Science and Technology "four batch" projects of the State Administration of Safety production Supervision and Administration "Research on risk Management and Emergency key Technologies of Deep Water Oil and Gas drilling in the South China Sea" (2012 / 507) and the special funding project (14CX06130A) for basic scientific research expenses of central colleges and universities. The risk analysis and control of emergency evacuation of offshore platform are carried out. 1 the causes of emergency evacuation risk of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the cases of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the main inducing scenarios of emergency evacuation are identified, such as explosion, platform overturning and tropical cyclone. Combined with the diversity of emergency evacuation mode, the decision model of emergency evacuation mode of offshore platform is constructed based on TOPSIS, and the application value is verified by an engineering example. In order to ensure the safety of personnel, the emergency evacuation response model of offshore platform is established, and the molecular stage is divided into two stages. EER HAZOP is used to identify the risk factors of human factors, equipment, environment and management in different stages, and DEMATEL is used to quantify the logical relationship of factors. Based on the variance and mean value, the appropriate threshold is set up, and the main correlation path diagram of risk factors is drawn. 2 the reliability quantitative analysis of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms combined with fuzzy mathematics and CREAM method is used to construct the reliability risk analysis model of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms. The steps of human reliability task analysis, the evaluation standard of common performance conditions, the fuzzy function of control mode and the quantitative rules are clarified. Based on the results of accident investigation and existing cases abroad, the human performance of three typical accident scenarios, leakage explosion, platform tilt and typhoon, is evaluated quantitatively, the probability of human error is predicted, the key steps of emergency evacuation are screened, and the main failure modes and damage cognitive functions are identified. 3 the coupling risk analysis of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform takes fire accident as an example and establishes the numerical model of evacuation simulation of offshore platform combined with engineering data. Determine the critical criteria for fire risk and evacuation risk. FDS software was used to explore the variation law and dangerous area range of the main indexes such as temperature, thermal radiation, visibility and gas concentration, and to determine the available safety time and the minimum safety radius of the main evacuation exit. Furthermore, with the help of EVAC module, the risk coupling degree of fire accident to the evacuation stage of offshore platform is compared and quantified. In order to evaluate the dynamic risk of evacuation route, a topological model of emergency evacuation path of offshore platform based on graph theory is established, and the reliability of evacuation path network is analyzed. the results show that there is a close switching relationship between different regions of the platform. Based on Dijkstra algorithm, the shortest path scheme for different locations to different assembly points is found, and the optimal path scheme considering fire obstacles, congestion and other common scenarios is given. (4) the safety barrier analysis and optimization of emergency evacuation safety barrier of offshore platform are carried out, the safety barrier model of emergency evacuation response of offshore platform is established, the barrier function is divided, the action path of barrier is identified, and the weak links of the system are determined. Combined with RFID,ZigBee and other information technologies, a barrier optimization scheme for the development of emergency management system for offshore platform personnel is put forward, which can effectively realize the functional integration of personnel positioning management, evacuation real-time simulation, path optimization design, and perfect the system framework design.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE58
本文编号：2505930
[Abstract]:Offshore oil and gas development is recognized as one of the most risky industries in the world. Offshore platform, as the main production facility of oil and gas exploration and exploitation, is in a bad environment and has a high probability of accident. Emergency evacuation plays a key role in ensuring the safety of personnel in the event of accidents, so it is of great significance to carry out relevant research to improve the overall emergency level of offshore oil and gas in China. In this paper, the emergency evacuation process of offshore platform personnel is taken as the research object, combined with the 2012 Safety Science and Technology "four batch" projects of the State Administration of Safety production Supervision and Administration "Research on risk Management and Emergency key Technologies of Deep Water Oil and Gas drilling in the South China Sea" (2012 / 507) and the special funding project (14CX06130A) for basic scientific research expenses of central colleges and universities. The risk analysis and control of emergency evacuation of offshore platform are carried out. 1 the causes of emergency evacuation risk of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the cases of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the main inducing scenarios of emergency evacuation are identified, such as explosion, platform overturning and tropical cyclone. Combined with the diversity of emergency evacuation mode, the decision model of emergency evacuation mode of offshore platform is constructed based on TOPSIS, and the application value is verified by an engineering example. In order to ensure the safety of personnel, the emergency evacuation response model of offshore platform is established, and the molecular stage is divided into two stages. EER HAZOP is used to identify the risk factors of human factors, equipment, environment and management in different stages, and DEMATEL is used to quantify the logical relationship of factors. Based on the variance and mean value, the appropriate threshold is set up, and the main correlation path diagram of risk factors is drawn. 2 the reliability quantitative analysis of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms combined with fuzzy mathematics and CREAM method is used to construct the reliability risk analysis model of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms. The steps of human reliability task analysis, the evaluation standard of common performance conditions, the fuzzy function of control mode and the quantitative rules are clarified. Based on the results of accident investigation and existing cases abroad, the human performance of three typical accident scenarios, leakage explosion, platform tilt and typhoon, is evaluated quantitatively, the probability of human error is predicted, the key steps of emergency evacuation are screened, and the main failure modes and damage cognitive functions are identified. 3 the coupling risk analysis of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform takes fire accident as an example and establishes the numerical model of evacuation simulation of offshore platform combined with engineering data. Determine the critical criteria for fire risk and evacuation risk. FDS software was used to explore the variation law and dangerous area range of the main indexes such as temperature, thermal radiation, visibility and gas concentration, and to determine the available safety time and the minimum safety radius of the main evacuation exit. Furthermore, with the help of EVAC module, the risk coupling degree of fire accident to the evacuation stage of offshore platform is compared and quantified. In order to evaluate the dynamic risk of evacuation route, a topological model of emergency evacuation path of offshore platform based on graph theory is established, and the reliability of evacuation path network is analyzed. the results show that there is a close switching relationship between different regions of the platform. Based on Dijkstra algorithm, the shortest path scheme for different locations to different assembly points is found, and the optimal path scheme considering fire obstacles, congestion and other common scenarios is given. (4) the safety barrier analysis and optimization of emergency evacuation safety barrier of offshore platform are carried out, the safety barrier model of emergency evacuation response of offshore platform is established, the barrier function is divided, the action path of barrier is identified, and the weak links of the system are determined. Combined with RFID,ZigBee and other information technologies, a barrier optimization scheme for the development of emergency management system for offshore platform personnel is put forward, which can effectively realize the functional integration of personnel positioning management, evacuation real-time simulation, path optimization design, and perfect the system framework design.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE58
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