华南沿海前汛期极端降水与地球章动的相关性探索

发布时间：2018-03-31 16:56

本文选题：华南前汛期　切入点：极端降水　出处：《地球物理学进展》2016年04期

【摘要】：华南前汛期的预报是气象和水利工作者共同关注的重要课题,由于大气环流场的变化会对大范围降水产生影响,比如华南前汛期,而地球章动的变化将引起大气环流场的改变,从而影响天气,基于此理论本文探索1982-2012年间章动变化与华南沿海前汛期极端降水量的相关性,结果发现,4月旬降水量最大值年份对应的前60天章动较最小年份,其振幅大或波动频繁;6月降水量最大值年份对应的前60天章动较最小年份,其振幅明显小或波动少;5月为转折期,章动反相之后,其章动特征与6月趋于一致.月降水量最大值年对应的章动变化,其振幅相对较小,或波动相对较少,这也反映了决定月降水量大小的环流以纬向环流占优势,以上发现为大范围极端降水提供了一种新的预报思路和方法.
[Abstract]:The prediction of the pre-flood season in South China is an important topic of common concern for meteorologists and water conservancy workers. Because the variation of the atmospheric circulation field will have an impact on the precipitation in a large area, for example, in the pre-flood season in South China, the change of the Earth nutation will cause the change of the atmospheric circulation field. Based on this theory, the correlation between the nutation variation and the extreme precipitation in the previous flood season in the South China coast is explored. The results show that the maximum precipitation in April is the smallest year in the first 60 days. The amplitude is large or fluctuating frequently, the amplitude of nutation in the first 60 days corresponding to the maximum year of precipitation in June is smaller than that in the minimum year, and the amplitude is obviously small or less fluctuating in May. The nutation characteristics tend to be consistent with those in June. The amplitude of the nutation variation corresponding to the maximum monthly precipitation is relatively small or the fluctuation is relatively small, which also shows that the zonal circulation dominates the circulation that determines the monthly precipitation. The above findings provide a new method for forecasting extreme precipitation in large range.
【作者单位】：海南61936部队;中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候环境重点实验室;海南92810部队气象台;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41275090)资助
【分类号】：P426.6;P183.3

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