异常的第24太阳活动周——新千年的第一个完整的太阳活动周

发布时间：2018-04-30 18:52

本文选题：太阳物理 + 黑子活动　；参考：《中国科学:物理学力学天文学》2010年10期

【摘要】：介绍自2007年下半年到现在的非常低的太阳活动状况:无黑子活动天数为16太阳活动周以来最多,不排除24周的无黑子天数是现代黑子周内最多的可能;高纬度(35°)黑子的纬度为12周最低;从2003年11月～2008年9月,较高纬度(20°)每月没有黑子或只有1个黑子,共计持续了58个月,也为12周以来第一次观测到;太阳风速度、太阳风压、10cm电磁波辐射、太阳极区磁场、太阳总光度辐射等参量都为有观测资料以来的最低.对于这种极低太阳活动的现象,介绍了从当前的日震观测给予的解释、也从Gleissberg周期的长尺度、超长太阳活动周期尺度给予了解释.依据目前的观测,我们确定24黑子活动周于2008年11月开始.综合多种经典太阳活动预报方法给出的对24周太阳活动水平的预报,以及美国国家航空航天局和美国国家海洋大气局对24周的未来发展趋势的预报,认为24周太阳活动水平估计比23周将要弱30%左右.异常的24太阳活动周为太阳物理和日地关系物理研究带来机遇.
[Abstract]:This paper introduces the very low solar activity from the second half of 2007 to the present: the number of days of sunspot free activity is the most since the 16 solar active weeks, and the possibility that the number of non-sunspot days in 24 weeks is the most in modern sunspot weeks is not excluded. The latitude of the sunspot is the lowest in 12 weeks, and from November 2003 to September 2008, there is no sunspot or only one sunspot per month, for a total of 58 months, the solar wind velocity has been observed for the first time in 12 weeks. The solar wind pressure of 10 cm electromagnetic wave radiation, the solar pole magnetic field, the total solar luminosity radiation and other parameters are the lowest since the observed data. This phenomenon of extremely low solar activity is explained from the current observation of solar motion, as well as from the long scale of Gleissberg period and the scale of super long period of solar activity. Based on current observations, we have determined that 24 sunspot activity week will begin in November 2008. Combining the forecasts of 24 weeks solar activity level given by various classical solar activity forecasting methods, and the forecast of the future trend of 24 weeks by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, It is believed that the solar activity level of 24 weeks is estimated to be about 30% weaker than that of 23 weeks. The anomalous 24 solar cycle presents an opportunity for the study of heliophysics and solar-terrestrial relation physics.
【作者单位】：中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台;中国科学院国家天文台太阳活动重点实验室;昆明理工大学分析测试中心;云南师范大学物理系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(批准号:40636031,10921303,10873032) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2006CB806300)资助项目
【分类号】：P182.9

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