全概率公式在时间地理中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 00:43

本文选题：概率时间地理 + 条件概率　；参考：《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2013年08期

【摘要】：在已知起止点时间和位置及最大速度的条件下,针对移动对象的时空不确定性,利用全概率公式构建了定向移动的概率模型。首先,根据起止点时间和位置计算平均速度(即能到达目的地的最小速度),并在最小与最大速度之间随机离散出若干速度点,同时假设随机速度变量服从麦克斯韦-玻尔兹曼分布。然后,对任一速度值计算移动对象的可达范围及其几何概型,即在该速度取值条件下移动对象的条件概率。最后,在速度概率与基于速度条件的几何概率基础上,利用全概率原理能计算定向移动的时空概率分布。实验结果表明,随最大速度的增大,该概率的方差具有收敛性和稳定性,不同于已有概率模型的方差的分散性。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of the time, position and maximum velocity of the starting and ending points, the probabilistic model of directional movement is constructed by using the full probability formula in view of the spatio-temporal uncertainty of moving objects. First of all, the average velocity (the minimum speed at which the destination can be reached) is calculated according to the time and position of the starting and ending points, and a number of velocity points are randomly discretized between the minimum and the maximum velocity. At the same time, assume the random velocity variable from Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution. Then, the reachable range of moving object and its geometric probability are calculated for any velocity value, that is, the conditional probability of moving object under the condition of the value of the velocity. Finally, on the basis of velocity probability and geometric probability based on velocity condition, the space-time probability distribution of directional movement can be calculated by using the full probability principle. The experimental results show that the variance of the probability is convergent and stable with the increase of the maximum velocity, and is different from the dispersion of the variance of the existing probabilistic model.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071283,41171319) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012-IV-097)
【分类号】：P19

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