光无源器件研发过程中的可靠性研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 15:43

本文选题：项目管理 + 可靠性　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着大信息时代的来临,对相关产品的研发过程提出了更快、更可靠的要求。但在研发过程中,状态的描述通常是不确定的,如“运行稳定”、“风险很大”、“有90%左右的可靠度”等。当作为衡量可靠性高低标准的可靠度也是不确定的时候,经典的概率方法就不能完全适用于该类问题。本研究旨在解决光无源器件研发过程中的不确定可靠性的信息化与规划问题。本研究分为三个部分:第一部分,讨论了适用于不确定可靠度分析中的不确定变量、不确定测度、不确定规划等相关数学理论基础;建立了基于不确定测度空间理论的项目可靠性模型,并给出了串联、并联、混联、储备等基本结构关系的不确定可靠度的数学描述,然后给出了基于Delphi法的不确定分布估计方法。区别于传统可靠度定义,不确定可靠度研究的对象是不确定变量和不确定集类,具有模糊和不精确的特点,与概率型随机变量有本质区别;第二部分,从系统工程与可靠性工程的角度,论述了光无源器件研发过程中相关特性,并且比较了经典可靠度理论在处理不确定问题的局限性,然后讨论了基于不确定可靠度理论的建模方法与流程。第三部分,研究了将不确定理论应用到实际光无源器件研发过程中的可靠性分析方法,并结合工程实例说明了不确定规划理论在提升研发过程可靠性的应用方法。通过分析3种光无源器件研发项目中的典型案例,说明了不确定规划模型在研发过程可靠性提升方面,更加符合实际工程的需要,可有效地用于对研发过程可靠度的预计和评估,以减小风险、降低成本、提高工程质量。最后提出了适用于研发过程的不确定可靠性提升建议。本文的主要工作与价值在于:1、将可靠度的研究角度从经典的概率测度空间模型扩展到不确定测度空间模型,以解决研发过程中的不确定问题。2、讨论了光无源器件研发过程中的不确定可靠度数学模型与适合工程项目的不确定可靠度分布估计方法。3、研究了不确定可靠度规划的工程应用,为理论转化为实践提供了案例参考。
[Abstract]:With the advent of the information age, the R & D process of related products has put forward faster and more reliable requirements. But in the research and development process, the description of the state is usually uncertain, such as "stable operation", "very risky", "there is about 90% reliability" and so on. When the reliability is uncertain as the criterion of reliability, the classical probability method can not be applied to this kind of problem completely. The purpose of this study is to solve the problem of information and planning of uncertain reliability in the research and development of optical passive devices. This research is divided into three parts: in the first part, the mathematical theories of uncertain variables, uncertain measures and uncertain programming are discussed. The project reliability model based on the uncertainty measure space theory is established, and the mathematical description of the uncertainty reliability of the series, parallel, hybrid, reserve and other basic structural relationships is given. Then an estimation method of uncertain distribution based on Delphi method is presented. Different from the traditional definition of reliability, the research object of uncertainty reliability is uncertain variables and uncertain set classes, which have the characteristics of fuzzy and imprecise, and are essentially different from probabilistic random variables. From the point of view of system engineering and reliability engineering, the related characteristics of optical passive devices are discussed, and the limitations of classical reliability theory in dealing with uncertain problems are compared. Then the modeling method and process based on uncertainty reliability theory are discussed. In the third part, the reliability analysis method of applying uncertainty theory to the research and development of practical optical passive devices is studied, and the application method of uncertain programming theory in improving the reliability of research and development process is illustrated with an engineering example. By analyzing the typical cases of three kinds of optical passive device R & D projects, it is shown that the uncertain programming model is more suitable to the practical engineering needs in improving the reliability of the R & D process. It can be used to predict and evaluate the reliability of R & D process effectively to reduce risk, reduce cost and improve engineering quality. Finally, an uncertain reliability enhancement proposal for R & D process is proposed. The main work and value of this paper lies in: 1. The research angle of reliability is extended from the classical probability measure space model to the uncertain measure space model. In order to solve the uncertain problem of R & D, the mathematical model of uncertainty reliability and the method of estimating uncertainty reliability distribution suitable for engineering projects are discussed, and the engineering application of uncertain reliability planning is studied. It provides a case reference for the theory conversion to practice.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TN929.1;TB114.3

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