基于Weibull函数分布的电力通信网光缆失效率模型

发布时间：2018-03-26 20:41

本文选题：光缆可靠性　切入点：失效率模型　出处：《电力系统保护与控制》2017年17期

【摘要】：为了解决电力通信网可靠性评估过程中光缆可靠性的量化和计算问题,在现有的三参数Weibull分布函数的基础上,结合光缆现行的国家与电力行业标准和主流生产厂家的光缆特性指标,提出了光缆失效的3个影响参数——形变参数、结构参数以及时间参数,并建立了适用于分析电力通信光缆失效率的概率分布模型。针对现有数据的局限性,采用将传统的黄金分割迭代算法与一种能够近似拟合的最大似然估计法相结合的方法对参数的取值进行计算和估计。该模型较好地反映了不同的因素对光缆可靠性的影响程度,实例分析验证了该模型具有一定的实用性。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of quantization and calculation of optical cable reliability in the process of reliability evaluation of electric power communication network, based on the existing three-parameter Weibull distribution function, Combined with the current national and power industry standards of optical cables and the optical cable characteristic indexes of mainstream manufacturers, three influencing parameters of optical cable failure, namely deformation parameter, structure parameter and time parameter, are put forward. A probability distribution model suitable for analyzing the failure rate of optical fiber cable in electric power communication is established. The traditional golden section iterative algorithm is combined with a approximate maximum likelihood estimation method to calculate and estimate the parameters. The model well reflects the influence of different factors on the reliability of optical fiber cable. An example shows that the model is practical.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学(保定)电气与电子工程学院;国网天津市电力公司信息通信公司;
【分类号】：TM73;TN915.853

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