基于FTA和Bayesian网络的血液透析感染风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-06 01:21

本文关键词：基于FTA和Bayesian网络的血液透析感染风险评估　出处：《工业工程与管理》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：血液透析感染风险评估有助于提高血透质量以及保证患者安全。血液透析感染风险受大量不确定性、多状态因素的影响而呈现出动态性,传统故障树分析(FTA)的确定性和二态性使其在评估该类风险时存在缺陷。通过将血液透析感染FTA静态模型映射为Bayesian网络对血液透析感染风险中存在的不确定性关系和多状态变量进行建模,利用Bayesian定理进行概率更新从不同角度识别易导致感染的关键事件,并且考虑患者异质性实现血液透析感染风险的动态评估。通过实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,与单一FTA方法相比该方法能够从多个角度对风险进行全面地分析与评估。
[Abstract]:Blood dialysis infection risk assessment is helpful to improve the quality of hemodialysis and ensure the safety of patients. Hemodialysis risk of infection by a lot of uncertainty, influence factors and present a dynamic state of traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine and two states make the existence of defects in the assessment of the risks by. Blood dialysis infection mapping FTA static model for Bayesian network on hemodialysis infection in the presence of uncertainties in the relationship between risk and multiple state variables for modeling, to update the probability from different angles to identify key events easily lead to infection by using the Bayesian theorem, and consider the heterogeneity of dynamic risk assessment in patients with hemodialysis infection. Through an example to verify the feasibility of and the effectiveness of the proposed method, compared with the single FTA method to conduct a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the risk from multiple angles.

【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;
【分类号】：O157.5;R459.5
【正文快照】： 1引言血液透析是治疗终末期肾病的有效手段。随着血液透析技术的不断发展和广泛应用,血液透析患者生存年限和生活质量不断提高。从整体看,血液透析水平有所改善,但透析并发症却呈增多趋势,其中感染导致的并发症是血液透析患者死亡的主要原因[1,2]。血液透析患者机体免疫功能减

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