热带太平洋盐度对平均SST和ENSO调制作用的模拟评估和分析
发布时间：2022-01-20 01:04
通过CMIP5提供的25个工业革命前控制试验（piControl）模拟数据评估分析了热带太平洋气候平均及两类El Ni（?）o （即东部EP和中部CP型El Ni（?）o）期间海表盐度（SSS）空间结构差异及其与海表温度（SST）、降水和纬向流的关系。结果表明:（1）模式对于气候平均SST、降水、SSS和纬向流的空间技巧评分依次减小,SST与SSS空间相关关系证明SSS对SST存在明显的反馈机制。SSS与降水、SSS与纬向流的空间相关说明降水和纬向流均影响SSS。其中,暖池、SPCZ（SouthPacific Convergence Zone）降水与同区域SSS的关系大于纬向流与SSS 的关系,而 ITCZ （Intertropical Convergence Zone）纬向流和日界线 SSS关系大于降水与SSS的关系。（2） SSS异常变化与ENSO事件密切联系。SSS异常EOF第一时间序列超前EP型ENSO指数10个月,可能与西风爆发引起西太平洋暖淡水向东积聚有关;SSS异常EOF第二时间序列超前CP型ENSO指数5个月,但模式模拟的超前滞后性不明显。特别的,SPCZ区域SSS异常...
【文章来源】：南京信息工程大学江苏省
【文章页数】：94 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【部分图文】：
图３．?１观测、集合平均（ＭＭＥ）及２５个ＣＭＩＰ５模式模拟的ＳＳＴ气候平均的空间分布（单??位：°Ｃ）
差之比最接近１；?ＧＦＤＬ－ＣＭ３标准差之比最小（０．６）。??３．?１．２海表盐度气候平均的分布特征??图３．３为ＳＳＳ气候平均的空间分布图。从观测中发现，暖池、赤道辐合带??（ＩｎｔｅｒＴｒｏｐｉｃａｌ?Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｇｅｎｃｅ?Ｚｏｎｅ，简称?ＩＴＣＺ）、南赤道福合带（Ｓｏｕｔｈ－Ｐａｃｉｆｉｃ??Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｇｅｎｃｅ?Ｚｏｎｅ，简称ＳＰＣＺ）为低盐区，其余为高盐区；高盐区南半球大于??北半球，低盐区东部大于西部。虽然模式能够再现观测海表盐度的空间模态，??但由于淡水通量、双赤道辐合带等问题引起的海表盐度模拟偏差依然存在。??就集合平均而言，气候平均上的主要ＳＳＳ偏差为东南太平洋的高盐水区域偏东??偏淡，位于］ＴＣＺ南北分支的低盐水区域偏淡和位于ＳＰＣＺ低盐区向东南过渡延??伸。除?ＧＩＳＳ－Ｅ２－Ｈ?外，ＡＣＣＥＳＳ１－３、?ＭＰＩ－ＥＳＭ－Ｐ、?ＩＰＳＬ－ＣＭ５Ｂ－ＬＲ、?ＣＭＣＣ－ＣＭＳ、??１４??
图３．?３观测、ＭＭＥ及２５个ＣＭＩＰ５模式模拟的ＳＳＳ气候平均的空间分布（单位：ｐｓｕ）。右??上角的数值为各个模式模拟ＳＳＳ的技巧评分??图３．４为ＳＳＳ气候平均的Ｔａｙｌｏｒ图，从Ｔａｙｌｏｒ中看出，ＭＭＥ相关系数最??高，为?０．８９；?ＡＣＣＥＳＳ１－３、?ｂｃｃ－ｃｓｍｌ－ｌｆｆｉ、?ＣＭＣＣ－ＣＭＳ、?ＨａｄＣＭ３、?ＩＰＳＬ－ＣＭ５Ａ－ＭＲ?和??ＮｏｒＥＳＭｌ－Ｍ的相关系数大于０．８?（６／２５）。就标准差之比而言，各个模式的标准??差之比相差较大，说明模式间对ＳＳＳ气候平均的模拟差异较大。ＭＭＥ和ＦＧ０ＡＬＳ－ｓ２??１５??
【参考文献】：
期刊论文
[1]Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. Yan SUN,Fan WANG,De-Zheng SUN. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2016(03)
[2]Simulation of Salinity Variability and the Related Freshwater Flux Forcing in the Tropical Pacific: An Evaluation Using the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model（BNU-ESM）[J]. ZHI Hai,ZHANG Rong-Hua,LIN Pengfei,WANG Lanning. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(11)
[3]Quantitative Analysis of the Feedback Induced by the Freshwater Flux in the Tropical Pacific Using CMIP5[J]. ZHI Hai,ZHANG Rong-Hua,LIN Pengfei,WANG Lanning. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(10)
[4]Sensitivity of ENSO Variability to Pacific Freshwater Flux Adjustment in the Community Earth System Model[J]. KANG Xianbiao,HUANG Ronghui,WANG Zhanggui,ZHANG Rong-Hua. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2014(05)
[5]Linkage between the dominant modes in Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and the two type ENSO events[J]. XU Kang 1,2,ZHU CongWen 2* & HE JinHai 1 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2 Institute of Climate Systems,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2012(26)
[6]Distinguished Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Development of the Central-Pacific El Ni o Events[J]. ZHENG Fei 1,WAN Li-Ying 2,and WANG Hui 3 1 International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China 3 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. 2012(02)
[7]Influences of Freshwater from Major Rivers on Global Ocean Circulation and Temperatures in the MIT Ocean General Circulation Model[J]. Vikram M.MEHTA. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2010(03)
本文编号：3597894
【文章来源】：南京信息工程大学江苏省
【文章页数】：94 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【部分图文】：
图３．?１观测、集合平均（ＭＭＥ）及２５个ＣＭＩＰ５模式模拟的ＳＳＴ气候平均的空间分布（单??位：°Ｃ）
差之比最接近１；?ＧＦＤＬ－ＣＭ３标准差之比最小（０．６）。??３．?１．２海表盐度气候平均的分布特征??图３．３为ＳＳＳ气候平均的空间分布图。从观测中发现，暖池、赤道辐合带??（ＩｎｔｅｒＴｒｏｐｉｃａｌ?Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｇｅｎｃｅ?Ｚｏｎｅ，简称?ＩＴＣＺ）、南赤道福合带（Ｓｏｕｔｈ－Ｐａｃｉｆｉｃ??Ｃｏｎｖｅｒｇｅｎｃｅ?Ｚｏｎｅ，简称ＳＰＣＺ）为低盐区，其余为高盐区；高盐区南半球大于??北半球，低盐区东部大于西部。虽然模式能够再现观测海表盐度的空间模态，??但由于淡水通量、双赤道辐合带等问题引起的海表盐度模拟偏差依然存在。??就集合平均而言，气候平均上的主要ＳＳＳ偏差为东南太平洋的高盐水区域偏东??偏淡，位于］ＴＣＺ南北分支的低盐水区域偏淡和位于ＳＰＣＺ低盐区向东南过渡延??伸。除?ＧＩＳＳ－Ｅ２－Ｈ?外，ＡＣＣＥＳＳ１－３、?ＭＰＩ－ＥＳＭ－Ｐ、?ＩＰＳＬ－ＣＭ５Ｂ－ＬＲ、?ＣＭＣＣ－ＣＭＳ、??１４??
图３．?３观测、ＭＭＥ及２５个ＣＭＩＰ５模式模拟的ＳＳＳ气候平均的空间分布（单位：ｐｓｕ）。右??上角的数值为各个模式模拟ＳＳＳ的技巧评分??图３．４为ＳＳＳ气候平均的Ｔａｙｌｏｒ图，从Ｔａｙｌｏｒ中看出，ＭＭＥ相关系数最??高，为?０．８９；?ＡＣＣＥＳＳ１－３、?ｂｃｃ－ｃｓｍｌ－ｌｆｆｉ、?ＣＭＣＣ－ＣＭＳ、?ＨａｄＣＭ３、?ＩＰＳＬ－ＣＭ５Ａ－ＭＲ?和??ＮｏｒＥＳＭｌ－Ｍ的相关系数大于０．８?（６／２５）。就标准差之比而言，各个模式的标准??差之比相差较大，说明模式间对ＳＳＳ气候平均的模拟差异较大。ＭＭＥ和ＦＧ０ＡＬＳ－ｓ２??１５??
【参考文献】：
期刊论文
[1]Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. Yan SUN,Fan WANG,De-Zheng SUN. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2016(03)
[2]Simulation of Salinity Variability and the Related Freshwater Flux Forcing in the Tropical Pacific: An Evaluation Using the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model（BNU-ESM）[J]. ZHI Hai,ZHANG Rong-Hua,LIN Pengfei,WANG Lanning. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(11)
[3]Quantitative Analysis of the Feedback Induced by the Freshwater Flux in the Tropical Pacific Using CMIP5[J]. ZHI Hai,ZHANG Rong-Hua,LIN Pengfei,WANG Lanning. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(10)
[4]Sensitivity of ENSO Variability to Pacific Freshwater Flux Adjustment in the Community Earth System Model[J]. KANG Xianbiao,HUANG Ronghui,WANG Zhanggui,ZHANG Rong-Hua. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2014(05)
[5]Linkage between the dominant modes in Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and the two type ENSO events[J]. XU Kang 1,2,ZHU CongWen 2* & HE JinHai 1 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2 Institute of Climate Systems,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2012(26)
[6]Distinguished Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Development of the Central-Pacific El Ni o Events[J]. ZHENG Fei 1,WAN Li-Ying 2,and WANG Hui 3 1 International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China 3 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. 2012(02)
[7]Influences of Freshwater from Major Rivers on Global Ocean Circulation and Temperatures in the MIT Ocean General Circulation Model[J]. Vikram M.MEHTA. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2010(03)
本文编号：3597894
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