叙利亚去化武的开启、走势及地区影响

发布时间：2018-03-20 18:25

本文选题：叙利亚　切入点：去化武　出处：《世界经济与政治论坛》2014年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：叙利亚去化武充满波折:各国在叙政治发展方面远未达成一致意见,叙内战将持续;西方国家对叙政府缺乏信任,将导致核查,但核查因其固有的非否证性而无法打消西方对叙化武的疑虑;叙去化武的开启过程存在盲区,即未查明谁是化武袭击实施者;安理会决议关于销毁叙化武的相关规定有些理想化。叙去化武将对地区国际关系和地区安全产生影响:叙对俄的安全依赖将加强,美沙关系中的裂痕将加深;美国对伊朗动武的可能性变小,以色列在不扩散大规模杀伤性武器方面将面临更大的压力,美国的"双重标准"将遭受更大挑战,但美国不会在不扩散问题上向以色列施加太大的压力。
[Abstract]:Syria's denuclearization is fraught with twists and turns: countries are far from agreeing on the political development of Syria, and the civil war in Syria will continue; and the lack of confidence in the Syrian government by Western countries will lead to verification. However, verification cannot dispel Western doubts about chemical weapons in Syria because of its inherent non-evidentiary nature, and there are blind areas in the opening process of chemical weapons denuclearization, that is, who is the perpetrator of the chemical weapons attack; The relevant provisions of the Security Council resolution on the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria are somewhat idealized. The denuclearization of chemical weapons in Syria will have an impact on regional international relations and regional security: the security dependence of Syria on Russia will be strengthened and the rift in US-Saudi relations will deepen; The United States is less likely to use force against Iran, Israel will face greater pressure in the area of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the "double standards" of the United States will face greater challenges. But the United States will not put too much pressure on Israel over non-proliferation.
【作者单位】：复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院;
【分类号】：D737.6;D815.5

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