基于方法论视角的中国东北亚地缘政治安全解析

发布时间：2018-03-29 02:28

本文选题：中国东北亚　切入点：地缘政治安全　出处：《吉林大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：地缘政治安全是国际关系研究的重要内容，地缘政治安全是国家生存与发展的前提条件，地缘政治安全是判断国家对外行为的重要依据。作为世界上唯一残存冷战体制的地区，东北亚地缘政治安全形势不仅会影响中国睦邻友好周边战略的实施，还会影响到中国成长为全方位大国的地缘战略空间。如果对影响地缘政治安全的因素认识不清，很有可能导致中国东北亚地缘战略出现偏差，进而对中国外交形成战略压力。因此，客观地看待与分析中国东北亚地缘政治安全就显得颇为重要。基于这种研究初衷，笔者采用主成分分析方法对影响中国东北亚地缘政治安全的因素进行了解析。全文共分五章，具体内容如下：第一章从安全研究的基本理论出发，阐述了地缘政治安全解析的理论。地缘政治安全是跨越民族国家领土边界的因素对一国内政及外交政策产生影响的一种现实状态。这种状态在客观上不仅现实存在，在主观上还能被国家及其人民认知。随着全球化的发展，影响地缘政治安全的因素不再限于传统安全领域，非传统安全领域内经济、能源、恐怖主义等要素的作用与日俱增，地缘政治安全的解读模式也发生了变化，原有的自然主义模式，空间—权力模式已经不适用于现时代的发展。20世纪70年代以来，地缘政治学家把结构主义引入地缘政治学的研究领域，也就出现了对地缘政治安全解读的结构主义模式。第二章阐述了中国东北亚地缘政治安全解析的框架与方法。在全球化时代，影响地缘政治安全的因素在逐渐增多，如何更有条理地分析影响中国东北亚地缘政治安全的因素，就需要借鉴层次分析法。在阐述层次分析法由来和发展的基础上，提出了层次划分的依据，把影响中国东北亚地缘政治安全的因素划分为体系层次、区域层次和中国国内层次。在阐述相关解析方法的基础上，论述了选择主成分分析方法的依据，阐述了主成分分析方法的原理和模型。第三章从国际体系层次解析了中国东北亚地缘政治安全。按照“理论阐释——解析指标建构——主成分分析——主成分提取”的研究思路，把经济、能源和恐怖主义作为理论分析的三个面向，把贸易出口总量、贸易进口总量、利用外资总量、外国直接投资净流入总量、货物和服务进出口总额、国际迁徙者总量、能源净进口总量、石油进口总量、中国的GDP、GDP增长率和失业人口总量12影响因子作为分析的指标，采用主成分分析方法，将这12个指标“降维”处理，提取出了以中国贸易进口量、国际迁徙者总量和石油进口总量为代表的三个主成分，并对其分析，辅之以图表将国际体系层次下的中国东北亚地缘政治安全数量化和可视化。第四章从东北亚区域层次解析了中国地缘政治安全。把美国及其东北亚同盟体系、朝核问题和中日领土争端作为理论阐释的基础，把美国的GDP、钢产量、军人数量和军费支出；韩国的GDP、钢产量、军人数量和军费支出；朝鲜的钢产量、能源消耗、军人数量和军费支出；日本的GDP、钢产量、军人数量和军费支出作为区域层次中国地缘政治安全分析的指标，采用主成分分析方法，将这16个指标“降维”处理，，提取出了以美国军费支出、朝鲜军人数量和日本的军费支出为代表的三个主成分，从东北亚区域层次解析了中国地缘政治安全。第五章从中国国内层次解析了东北亚地缘政治安全。把台湾问题、国内经济运行状态和社会稳定程度作为分析的基础，把台湾钢产量、台湾能源消耗、台湾军人数量、台湾军费支出、外国直接投资净流入、来自国外的净资金转移、农业增加值、工业增加值、服务等附加值、税收总额、失业总人口和社会犯罪率作为中国国内层次的分析指标，采用主成分分析方法，将这11个指标“降维”处理，提取出了以中国大陆工业增加值、台湾地区的钢产量和军费支出为代表的三个主成分，对中国国内层次下的地缘政治安全进行分析。从整体上来讲，三个分析层次的整合力图呈现冷战结束以来中国东北亚地缘政治安全的现状。研究认为冷战结束以来中国东北亚地缘政治安全形势不容乐观，被提取出来的主成分因子将会长期作用于中国东北亚地缘政治安全，并且随着中国经济的快速发展，这种影响会体现得越来越明显。
[Abstract]:The geopolitical security is an important part of international relations research , and geopolitical security is the precondition for the existence and development of the country . The geopolitical security is an important basis for judging the country ' s external behavior .
Chapter 1 , based on the basic theory of security research , expounds the theory of geopolitical security analysis . The geopolitical security is a kind of reality which influences the internal affairs and foreign policy . With the development of globalization , the factors that influence geopolitical security are no longer limited to the traditional security field , the original naturalism mode , the space - power mode have not been applied to the development of the present age .
The second chapter expounds the framework and method of political security analysis in Northeast Asia of China . In the age of globalization , the factors that influence the political security of the geo - border are increasing , and how to analyze the factors that influence the political security in Northeast Asia of China should be analyzed .
Chapter three analyzes the geopolitical security of Northeast Asia in Northeast China from the international system level . According to the research thought of " theory interpretation _ analysis index construction _ principal component analysis _ principal component extraction " , the author uses the principal component analysis method to deal with the total amount of foreign direct investment , the total quantity of foreign direct investment , the total amount of foreign direct investment , the gross domestic product , GDP growth rate and the total amount of unemployed population .
The fourth chapter analyzes the political security of China ' s geo - border from the northeast Asia region . The U.S . and its Northeast Asia alliance system , the DPRK nuclear issue and the Sino - Japanese territorial disputes are used as the basis for theoretical explanation , and the U.S . GDP , steel output , military quantity and military expenditure are expended .
South Korea ' s GDP , steel production , military and military expenditures ;
North Korea ' s steel output , energy consumption , military holdings and military expenditures ;
Japan ' s GDP , steel output , military quantity and military expenditure expenditure as the index of regional level China ' s geopolitical security analysis , using principal component analysis method , this 16 indexes " reducing dimension " treatment , extracted three main components represented by U.S . military expenditure , North Korea military quantity and military expenditure of Japan , analyzed the Chinese geo - political security from the Northeast Asia regional level .
Chapter five analyzes the geopolitical security of Northeast Asia from the domestic level of China . The paper analyzes the Taiwan question , the domestic economic operation state and the degree of social stability as the basis for analyzing the Taiwan issue , the Taiwan energy consumption , the quantity of Taiwanese military personnel , Taiwan military expenditure , net inflow of foreign direct investment , net capital transfer from abroad , agricultural added value , total unemployment population and social crime rate as the analysis indexes of China ' s domestic level , and extracts three main components represented by the industrial added value of China , the steel output in Taiwan area and military expenditure , and analyzes the geopolitical security at the domestic level of China .
On the whole , the integration of the three analytic hierarchy tries to present the present situation of political security in Northeast Asia since the end of the cold war . The study shows that the political security situation of Northeast Asia in Northeast Asia is not optimistic since the end of the cold war , and the extracted principal component factor will play a long - term role in the political security of Northeast Asia in China , and the influence will be more and more obvious along with the rapid development of China ' s economy .

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D731

【引证文献】