民意扩展视角下缅甸国家政局变迁及其对区域地缘政治关系的影响

发布时间：2018-05-03 00:31

本文选题：多行为体 + 民意扩展　；参考：《云南师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：民意是在特定的背景下,社会中的个人或群体对社会公共事务或现象所表达出来的意见、愿景而形成的群体性意向。民意作为反映当下政权及其行为是否运营良好的检验者,及时听取民意、化解矛盾则利于国家发展,但对民意过度压制,则会促使该民意形成一股社会力量,对政府政绩运行、社会的稳定造成危害。缅甸自独立以来,就长时期处于军政府(或军事集团代表)的统治下,国内反对军政府统治要求民主的民意诉求越来越强烈,同时一直存在的少数民族地方武装对政府唯一性提出了挑战。但军政府未能有效化解矛盾反而在压制的过程中又产生其他民意集团。在缅甸的多股民意集团中,以要求民主的政治型民意集团对军政府执政的威胁最大,该民意集团在不断抗争中又取得了国际力量的支持,最终通过合法选举取得了缅甸执政权,迫使带有浓厚军人背景的前政府下台。这样的政权变革直接影响到缅甸国内局势以及区域地缘政治关系。而国内的其他民意集团的民意事件自缅甸民主化改革以来就逐渐增多,其背后主导者也不单单只是缅甸民众,除此之外还增加了国外非政府组织、大国战略调整的力量。而中国作为缅甸邻国,在这场民意扩展中利益受到一定影响,因而研究缅甸国内民意的类型、扩展进程对区域地缘政治经济的影响,对保障中国地缘安全、维护地缘战略利益有着重要意义和价值。本文以政治性民意、地缘政治为理论基础,对缅甸自独立以来的民意扩展及其对缅甸国内政局、区域地缘政治关系的影响进行分析。文章主要分为四部分,第一部分阐述了缅甸的政治经济环境、资源条件、历史发展进程等方面,在此基础上总结出缅甸目前存在的六大主要民意集团;第二部分对缅甸民意扩展的内、外部力量进行分析,从时间上和空间上对民意事件进行梳理;第三部分重点阐述了缅甸民意扩展对国内政局、经济、外交、区域合作的影响,以及当下缅甸政府面对的挑战;第四部分分析缅甸民意扩展背景下区域地缘政治格局的变动,美国等西方国家势力上升,增强对缅甸的地缘渗透力,中国在缅甸影响力有所下降,缅甸周边的地缘环境充满竞争性,区域一体化进程加快。文章最后对提升中国在缅甸利益提出了简要的建议。
[Abstract]:Public opinion is the group intention formed by the individual or group of people in the society on the public affairs or phenomenon under the specific background. Public opinion, as a test of whether the current regime and its behavior are operating well, is conducive to the development of the country by listening to public opinions in time and resolving contradictions. However, excessive suppression of public opinion will promote the public opinion to form a social force and run on the government's achievements. The stability of society is harmful. Myanmar has long been under the military government (or representatives of military blocs) since independence, and there has been a growing public demand for democracy in the country against the rule of the military junta. At the same time, the existence of ethnic minority local armed groups to the uniqueness of the government put forward a challenge. But the junta failed to resolve the conflict effectively, but in the process of suppression of other public opinion groups. Among the many public opinion groups in Myanmar, the democratic political public opinion group poses the greatest threat to the ruling government of the military junta, which has won the support of international forces in its constant struggle and finally gained the power of Myanmar to govern through legitimate elections. The former government, with a strong military background, was forced to step down. Such regime changes directly affect the internal situation and regional geopolitical relations in Myanmar. The public opinion events of other public opinion groups in China have gradually increased since the democratization and reform of Myanmar, and the leaders behind them are not only the people of Myanmar, but also the strength of foreign non-governmental organizations and the strategic adjustment of big countries. As a neighboring country of Myanmar, China's interests in this expansion of public opinion have been affected to a certain extent. Therefore, the study of the types of domestic public opinion in Myanmar, the impact of the expansion process on the regional geopolitical economy, and the protection of China's geopolitical security, Safeguarding geo-strategic interests is of great significance and value. Based on political public opinion and geopolitics, this paper analyzes the expansion of public opinion and its influence on Myanmar's internal political situation and regional geopolitical relations since the independence of Myanmar. The article is divided into four parts. The first part describes the political and economic environment, resource conditions, historical development process and other aspects of Myanmar, on the basis of which summed up the existing six major public opinion groups in Myanmar; The second part analyzes the internal and external forces of Myanmar's public opinion expansion, combing the public opinion events in time and space. The third part focuses on the impact of Myanmar's public opinion expansion on the domestic political situation, economy, diplomacy, and regional cooperation. And the current challenges facing the Myanmar government. The fourth part analyzes the changes in the regional geopolitical structure in the context of the expansion of public opinion in Myanmar. The United States and other Western countries have increased their power to increase their geopolitical penetration to Myanmar. China's influence in Myanmar has declined, its geographical environment is competitive, and regional integration is accelerating. At the end of the article, some brief suggestions are put forward to promote China's interests in Myanmar.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D733.7;K901.4

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