威权政体下的埃及2011年政局动荡分析
发布时间：2018-11-11 14:03
【摘要】：埃及自1952年推翻君主制、建立共和国起,在纳赛尔、萨达特和穆巴拉克三任总统的领导下,构建了具有鲜明埃及特色的新威权政体,并在此基础上进行了一系列改革,把埃及从一个赢弱的殖民地发展成为阿拉伯世界里一支举足轻重的力量,也使埃及在很长一段时间里一直都是中东地区政治经济相对稳定的国家之一。但为何在这场席卷西亚北非的政局动荡的浪潮中,稳坐埃及总统宝座30年之久的穆巴拉克却未能幸免?迄今为止,这场轰轰烈烈的政局动荡已过去一年多了,但当下风暴仍在发展之中,动荡由乱到治尚须时日,这不能不发人深思。 本文以始于2010年席卷西亚北非地区的政局动荡为背景,以中东地区大国埃及长期执政的威权政体为切入点,通过对埃及威权政体的确立以及在现实中所遭遇的困境的阐述,就埃及现在的威权宪政模式、经济模式、社会结构中的公民社会与宗教和2011年政局动荡的相关性进行深入剖析,并对当前埃及过渡时期内各种政治力量的分布、政治取向和未来政局发展趋势做出分析与预测。全文共分为六章。第一章介绍选题背景、研究现状以及研究思路、方法和意义。第二章首先结合相关历史对当代埃及威权政体的缘起以及特征进行了分析,试图从政治学的视角探究其合法性危机；紧接着揭示了埃及威权政体的功过是非,在分析了其消极影响后,承上启下地引出了此次政局动荡,并对其过程进行了简要的回顾。第三、四、五章分别将埃及威权政体的宪政模式、经济模式、公民社会与宗教,和2011年的政局动荡一一关联起来,对埃及政局动荡的原因进行深度剖析,试图解析埃及长期实行威权政体造成的政治、经济与社会结构的弊端对政局动荡的深层影响,探究到底是什么原因使其难以继续对社会进行治理、它又为何成为政局动荡的一个制度诱因。第六章首先回顾了政局动荡后的政治重建过程,接着对埃及未来政局几种可能的走向进行了展望与预测,此外,还阐述了埃及的政局动荡对其他发展中国家政治发展的意义,并提供了一些启示。
[Abstract]:Since the overthrow of the monarchy and the establishment of the republic in 1952, Egypt, under the leadership of President Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, has constructed a new authoritarian regime with distinctive Egyptian characteristics, and has carried out a series of reforms on this basis. The development of Egypt from a weak colony to an important force in the Arab world has made Egypt one of the relatively stable countries in the Middle East for a long time. But why, in this wave of political turmoil that has engulfed West Asia and North Africa, has Mubarak, who has held the presidency of Egypt for 30 years, not been spared? More than a year has passed since the tumult, but the current storm is still under way, and it is still some time before the turmoil moves from chaos to governance, which cannot be more than thought-provoking. Against the background of the political turmoil that engulfed West Asia and North Africa in 2010, this paper takes the authoritarian regime of Egypt, a large power in the Middle East region, as the starting point, and expounds the establishment of the authoritarian regime in Egypt and the difficulties encountered in reality. The relevance of Egypt's current authoritarian constitutional model, economic model, civil society in the social structure to religion and the political turmoil of 2011 is deeply analyzed, and the distribution of various political forces during the current transition period in Egypt is also discussed. The political orientation and the future political situation development tendency make the analysis and the forecast. The full text is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, research status, research ideas, methods and significance. The second chapter firstly analyzes the origin and characteristics of the contemporary autocracy in Egypt, and tries to explore its legitimacy crisis from the perspective of political science. Then it reveals the merits and demerits of the autocratic regime in Egypt, after analyzing its negative influence, it leads to the political turmoil and briefly reviews its process. In the third, fourth and fifth chapters, the constitutional model, the economic model, the civil society and religion of Egypt's authoritarian regime, and the political turmoil in 2011 are one by one linked to each other, and the causes of the political instability in Egypt are analyzed in depth. Trying to analyze the deep influence of the abuses of political, economic and social structures on the political instability caused by Egypt's long-standing authoritarian regime, and to explore the reasons why it is difficult to continue to govern society. And why it has become a political instability of the institutional cause. The sixth chapter first reviews the political reconstruction process after the political turmoil, and then forecasts the possible trends of Egypt's political situation in the future. In addition, it expounds the significance of the political turmoil in Egypt to the political development of other developing countries. It also provides some enlightenment.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D741.1
本文编号：2325049
[Abstract]:Since the overthrow of the monarchy and the establishment of the republic in 1952, Egypt, under the leadership of President Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, has constructed a new authoritarian regime with distinctive Egyptian characteristics, and has carried out a series of reforms on this basis. The development of Egypt from a weak colony to an important force in the Arab world has made Egypt one of the relatively stable countries in the Middle East for a long time. But why, in this wave of political turmoil that has engulfed West Asia and North Africa, has Mubarak, who has held the presidency of Egypt for 30 years, not been spared? More than a year has passed since the tumult, but the current storm is still under way, and it is still some time before the turmoil moves from chaos to governance, which cannot be more than thought-provoking. Against the background of the political turmoil that engulfed West Asia and North Africa in 2010, this paper takes the authoritarian regime of Egypt, a large power in the Middle East region, as the starting point, and expounds the establishment of the authoritarian regime in Egypt and the difficulties encountered in reality. The relevance of Egypt's current authoritarian constitutional model, economic model, civil society in the social structure to religion and the political turmoil of 2011 is deeply analyzed, and the distribution of various political forces during the current transition period in Egypt is also discussed. The political orientation and the future political situation development tendency make the analysis and the forecast. The full text is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, research status, research ideas, methods and significance. The second chapter firstly analyzes the origin and characteristics of the contemporary autocracy in Egypt, and tries to explore its legitimacy crisis from the perspective of political science. Then it reveals the merits and demerits of the autocratic regime in Egypt, after analyzing its negative influence, it leads to the political turmoil and briefly reviews its process. In the third, fourth and fifth chapters, the constitutional model, the economic model, the civil society and religion of Egypt's authoritarian regime, and the political turmoil in 2011 are one by one linked to each other, and the causes of the political instability in Egypt are analyzed in depth. Trying to analyze the deep influence of the abuses of political, economic and social structures on the political instability caused by Egypt's long-standing authoritarian regime, and to explore the reasons why it is difficult to continue to govern society. And why it has become a political instability of the institutional cause. The sixth chapter first reviews the political reconstruction process after the political turmoil, and then forecasts the possible trends of Egypt's political situation in the future. In addition, it expounds the significance of the political turmoil in Egypt to the political development of other developing countries. It also provides some enlightenment.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D741.1
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 蔡落超;合法性视野下的穆巴拉克政权垮台的原因探析[D];湖南师范大学;2013年
，本文编号：2325049
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