塔吉克斯坦面临的安全风险及其对“丝绸之路经济带”的影响

发布时间：2018-12-06 19:44

【摘要】：塔吉克斯坦积极推进“丝绸之路经济带”落实,以刺激本国经济发展。中塔两国贸易合作形式良好,在“丝绸之路经济带”的助推下两国更是有望成为全面战略合作伙伴。虽然,塔吉克斯坦是中亚地区发展相对落后的国家,基础设施薄弱。但是,塔吉克斯坦拥有丰富的矿产资源和水力资源,在经济合作上,中塔两国有天然的互补优势。此外,塔吉克斯坦特殊的地理和文化环境,致使塔吉克斯坦成为成为保障地区安全的“前哨站”,也是“丝绸之路经济带”建设的不稳定因素之一。因此,分析塔吉克斯坦的安全风险的种类,产生的原因,对保障“丝绸之路经济带”顺利推进有重要的意义。巴里·布赞为安全研究提供了体系化的理论,他将安全研究内容扩展至军事-政治以外的经济、社会和环境领域,基于沃尔兹的“人、国家、体系”的体系层次分析方法,将安全研究的对象向上延伸至体系,特别是地区安全,向下延伸至个人安全。基于此提出的地区安全复合体也颇具指导意义。文章以巴里·布赞的安全理论为研究框架,分析塔吉克斯坦存在的安全风险。塔吉克斯坦与邻国争议问题基本得以解决,安全风险主要来自于非政治-军事领域。但是由于自身安全防御能力低,部落化的政治生态仍然存在,军事-政治风险不容忽视。塔吉克斯坦经济结构脆弱,经融环境相对恶劣;文化认同、公民意识薄弱,社会发展极度不平衡;同时,塔吉克斯坦生态环境日趋恶化,自然灾害种类多,而灾害预警和处理机制不完善,自然灾害的破坏力巨大。由于国内经济、文化环境不容乐观,加之阿富汗安全局势紧张、恐怖主义在全球的扩散以及域外大国的干预,使得“三股势力”在塔吉克斯坦活动频繁,甚至影响地区安全。塔吉克斯坦意识到自身发展的缺陷,塔吉克斯坦试图以国内改革和国外合作的方式改善投资环境,化解不断攀升的安全风险。
[Abstract]:Tajikistan actively promoted the implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt to stimulate the country's economic development. China and Tajikistan have a good form of trade cooperation, and the two countries are expected to become comprehensive strategic partners under the help of the "Silk Road Economic Belt." Although Tajikistan is a relatively backward country in Central Asia, its infrastructure is weak. However, Tajikistan is rich in mineral and hydraulic resources, and China and Tajikistan have natural complementary advantages in economic cooperation. In addition, Tajikistan's special geographical and cultural environment has made Tajikistan an "outpost" to ensure regional security and one of the unstable factors in the construction of the "Silk Road economic belt". Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the types and causes of the security risks in Tajikistan to ensure the smooth advancement of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Barry Buzan provides a systematized theory for security research, extending it to the economic, social, and environmental fields beyond military-political, based on Woltz's "people, State, system," System-Analytical approach. The object of security research is extended up to the system, especially regional security, and down to personal security. The regional security complex based on this is also of guiding significance. Based on Barry Buzan's safety theory, this paper analyzes the security risks in Tajikistan. The dispute between Tajikistan and neighboring countries is basically resolved, and the security risks mainly come from the non-political-military field. However, because of their low security and defense ability, tribalistic political ecology still exists, and military-political risks can not be ignored. Tajikistan has a fragile economic structure and a relatively poor financial environment, cultural identity, weak civic awareness, and extremely unbalanced social development. At the same time, the ecological environment of Tajikistan is deteriorating day by day, there are many kinds of natural disasters, and the mechanism of disaster warning and handling is not perfect, and the destructive power of natural disasters is enormous. Due to the unoptimistic domestic economic and cultural environment, the tense security situation in Afghanistan, the spread of terrorism in the world and the intervention of foreign powers, the "three forces" are frequently active in Tajikistan, and even affect regional security. Aware of the shortcomings of its own development, Tajikistan is trying to improve the investment environment by means of domestic reform and foreign cooperation to defuse rising security risks.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;D736.5

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