和谐社会指数的构建及应用研究

发布时间：2019-05-18 20:43

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国的经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,各项建设所取得的成就举世瞩目。与此同时,社会和环境面临的压力、矛盾及问题逐渐显现,并可能变得更为复杂、更为突出。在此背景下,和谐社会概念应运而生,反映了中国共产党对社会主义事业发展规律的新认识,以及对执政规律、能力、方略和方式的新理解,为实现社会主义现代化目标提供了新的指导方针。通过构建和谐社会指数并对和谐社会进行实证研究,有助于各级政府和人民群众改变单纯追求国内生产总值的观念,以便落实好中共十八届三中全会的决定中“完善发展成果考核评价体系,纠正单纯以经济增长速度评定政绩的偏向”的要求；同时,还可全面反映各地历年和谐社会建设的客观、动态进程,以利于各地从宏观上、空间上和时间上更科学地规划促进与和谐社会相关的一系列建设。据此,本文以和谐社会内涵、系统构成及作用机制、综合评价等理论为基础,构建了和谐社会综合评价体系框架。通过体系检验、结果测算及结论分析,从特征及影响因素两方面对全国及各省和谐社会建设情况进行了深入研究,并设计开发了全国首个和谐社会综合评价系统。全文主要包括：第一,阐明了和谐社会评价的理论基础。在系统梳理国内外学者对社会发展评价、和谐社会综合评价等相关研究基础上,从和谐社会内涵出发,阐述和谐社会基本特征及系统构成。第二,构建了基于PSR框架的和谐社会评价体系。分析表明,本研究构建的评价体系无论从构建思路、逻辑层次还是指标选取方面都有所改善,既保证了整体与局部的结构关系,又不失前因后果等逻辑联系。指标选取方面更是采用一配对的方式,以保证各维度紧密相连,有助于从源头上提高测算结果的科学性与有效性。第三,测算了和谐社会指数,并剖析了全国及各省和谐社会指数特征。根据构建的和谐社会评价指标体系,通过指标筛选、体系检验、指标赋权等步骤,测算了2007—2012年全国及各省和谐社会分指数和总指数结果。首先,对指数特征进行定义,并选定具体分类方法,对和谐社会分指数和总指数进行了描述性特征分析,结果表明：和谐社会分指数差异性很大,历年各省呈现不同特征,并具有“东部优于西部,北方低于南方”的规律。其次,利用Logistic模型和多指标面板数据聚类方法对和谐社会指数进行时空特征分析,结果表明：各省进入和谐社会不同发展阶段的时间点有所差异,但各阶段经历周期大致相同。省域聚类数量与传统地理区位划分数目一样,但各类别包含省份相差甚远。第1类仅包含有北京和上海两个城市。第3类所包含的省市基本属于中部省市,但包括了东部地区的广东省。此外,第4类包含的省市主要是西部地区和东北地区。第四,分析了和谐社会指数的影响因素。通过分析和谐社会影响因素来源,对其进行分类,并利用灰色关联模型、Moran's Ⅰ指数和纳入了空间效应的空间滞后模型与空间误差模型分别分析了时间、空间及时空混合影响因素。结果表明：经济发展水平和社会贫富差距是影响最大的时间动态因素,而地理位置是最重要的空间结构影响因素。此外,当期GDP增长率、就业人员平均劳动报酬、城乡收入差距和城乡消费支出比对和谐社会指数在省域之间有显著的正向空间扩散(溢出)效应和较强的空间依赖作用。第五,设计开发了十分实用、便捷的“和谐社会综合评价系统”软件。该评价系统主要从维度选择、数据导入与测算、结果分析3个方面进行编程和开发。此外,从指数发布、报告出版及数据库搭建3方面设计出和谐社会指数的应用实施方案,使和谐社会综合评价的理论落地,操作性更强。第六,构建了和谐社会总系统及子系统演化模拟模型,通过数值拟合及政策仿真模拟和谐社会演化过程,并据此提出政策建议。从经济、社会和环境3个系统构建和谐社会模拟模型。各系统均能较好地通过模型误差检验和灵敏度分析。同时,将3个系统包含的政策重组为10类并进行单独模拟。最后,提出了构建和谐社会的政策建议：一是各级政府应通过缩小城乡居民收入差距、扩大就业、加强生态环境保护及加大反腐力度,从源头纾解和谐社会建设压力；二是各级政府应通过优化居民商品住宅供给结构、促进各地区协调发展、保持国民经济的持续稳步增长及和谐社会建设的良好态势；三是各级政府应通过加强社会安全监督、完善社会保障制度与和谐社会评价体系,强化和谐社会建设保障措施,以期早日实现和谐社会,共圆中国梦。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has changed over and over, and the achievements of the various construction have attracted worldwide attention. At the same time, the pressures, contradictions and problems faced by society and the environment are becoming more complex and more prominent. In this context, the concept of the harmonious society comes into being, which reflects the new understanding of the Chinese Communist Party's law on the development of the socialist cause, and the new understanding of the law, ability, strategy and means of the governing law, and provides new guidelines for the realization of the socialist modernization goal. through the construction of the harmonious society index and the empirical study of the harmonious society, the government and the people at all levels can change the concept of the pure pursuit of the gross domestic product so as to implement the "To improve the evaluation system of the development results and to correct the bias of the economic growth rate in the assessment of the performance" 's requirements in the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China; and meanwhile, The objective and dynamic process of building a harmonious society in all parts of the world can be reflected in a comprehensive way, so that a series of construction related to the harmonious society can be more scientifically planned and promoted from the macroscopic, spatial and temporal aspects. Based on the theory of the connotation of the harmonious society, the composition of the system and the mechanism of action, the comprehensive evaluation and so on, the framework of the comprehensive evaluation system of the harmonious society is constructed. On the basis of the system test, the result measurement and the conclusion analysis, the construction of the harmonious society in the whole country and the provinces is deeply studied from the characteristics and the influence factors, and the first comprehensive evaluation system of the first harmonious society in the whole country has been designed and developed. A. The full text of the main package The first part expounds the theory of the evaluation of the harmonious society On the basis of the relevant research, such as the evaluation of the social development and the comprehensive evaluation of the harmonious society at home and abroad, the basic characteristics and system of the harmonious society are set out from the connotation of the harmonious society The second, the construction of the harmonious society based on the PSR framework The analysis shows that the evaluation system constructed by the present study has improved both from the construction idea, the logic level and the index selection. The index selection is a matching way to ensure that each dimension is closely connected, which helps to improve the science of the measurement result from the source. Third, the index of the harmonious society is measured, and the whole country and the provinces and the provinces are also analyzed. According to the construction of the index system of the harmonious society, through the steps of index selection, system inspection, and index empowerment, the harmonious society of the whole country and the provinces in the period of 2007-2012 is calculated and calculated. First, the index character is defined, and the specific classification method is selected. The index and the general index of the harmonious society are analyzed in a descriptive way. The results show that the difference of the social index of the harmonious society is very large, the provinces in the calendar year have different characteristics, and have the "The last is the best to the best and the north is the" software. The evaluation system is mainly selected from the dimension, data import and calculation, and the result analysis In addition, the implementation of the harmonious society index is designed from the aspects of index release, report publishing and database building, so as to make the harmonious society comprehensive evaluation The theory of a harmonious society and the simulation model of the subsystem evolution are constructed, and a harmonious society is simulated by means of numerical fitting and policy simulation. A process of mainstreaming and policy recommendations, from economic, social and environmental aspects A model of building a harmonious society is constructed by a system. All the systems can communicate well. Over-model error checking and sensitivity analysis. At the same time, the policies included in the 3 systems Finally, it puts forward the policy suggestion to construct the harmonious society: First, the governments at all levels should reduce the income gap between the urban and rural residents, expand the employment, strengthen the ecological environment protection and increase the anti-corruption power Second, the governments at all levels should promote the coordinated development of various regions through the optimization of the supply structure of the residential commodity houses, maintain the sustained growth of the national economy and the good situation of the construction of the harmonious society; The government at all levels should strengthen the social security supervision, improve the social security system and the evaluation system of the harmonious society, and strengthen the construction and guarantee measures of the harmonious society.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D61

【参考文献】