内生与外生死亡分解下的中国成年人口的预期寿命——基于生命力模型的应用

发布时间：2018-01-01 18:23

本文关键词：内生与外生死亡分解下的中国成年人口的预期寿命——基于生命力模型的应用　出处：《人口研究》2015年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用生命力模型对我国成年人口(35岁及以上)分年龄别死亡率曲线进行拟合,据此将预期寿命分解为内生预期与外生损失寿命。通过对六普数据的应用,发现我国男性与女性成年人口预期寿命的差异主要来自于受即时环境影响的外生损失寿命。而城乡间的差异主要来自于由慢性衰老过程所主导的内生期望寿命。与日本的国别间比较进一步揭示,我国与寿命领先国家的主要差距在于内生过程。此外,五普与六普的纵向比较表明,外生死亡的减少是我国成年男性近10年来预期寿命变动的主要因素,而内生与外生死亡因素的改进在女性近10年寿命增长中的贡献趋于平衡。依据寿命领先国际的经验,我国未来预期寿命的增长将逐渐转变为以内生因素提高为主的模式。
[Abstract]:The paper uses the vitality model to fit the age-specific mortality curve of Chinese adult population aged 35 years and above. Based on this, the life expectancy is decomposed into endogenous expectation and exogenous loss life. It is found that the difference between male and female adult life expectancy mainly comes from the exogenous lost life span which is affected by the immediate environment, while the difference between urban and rural areas is mainly from the endogenous life expectancy which is dominated by the chronic aging process. The comparison between countries and Japan reveals further. The main gap between China and the leading countries in life expectancy lies in the endogenous process. In addition, the longitudinal comparison between Wupu and Liupu shows that the decrease of exogenous death is the main factor of the change of life expectancy of adult males in China in the past 10 years. The contribution of the improvement of endogenous and exogenous death factors to the female life expectancy increases in the past 10 years tends to be balanced, based on the experience of leading the world in life expectancy. The growth of life expectancy in the future in China will gradually change to the mode of endogenous factors.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(批准号:14CRK007)“人口预期寿命延长趋势研究” 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD840005)“中国第六次人口普查资料分析研究”的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：C924.24
【正文快照】： 1导论在人口学研究领域中,人群的全因死亡率和综合了死亡率信息的预期寿命是最常用也是最受关注的指标。但是在我们观测到的全因死亡率和人口预期寿命的背后,蕴含着复杂的死亡模式。死亡模式的不同,可能会对死亡率和预期寿命造成较大的影响。而辨认和分解出这些不同的模式将有

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