上海老年人口变动对公共服务的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-31 21:05

本文关键词： 老年人口变动公共服务供给需求　出处：《华东师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着老龄化社会的到来,老年人口变动对社会经济各方面的影响日益显现,老年人迫切需要的社会资源——老年公共服务也越发变得紧俏和受用。在我国政府着力加强民生建设,不断健全公共服务体系的背景下,研究老年人口变动对老年相关公共服务的影响,从而为老年公共服务体系的建设找准方向,具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。本文在对老年人口变动及相关公共服务的理论进展及既有成果加以综述的基础上,采用文献研究法、人口统计学分析法、空间GIS分析法等,总结了新时期上海老年人口变动的新特征,并通过选取与老年人口密切相关的公共财政、医疗卫生、养老服务等公共服务资源来进行实证性的影响分析,通过供需之间的比较研究,找出其中不协调、不匹配的情况,在此基础上,结合公共产品供给理论和新公共服务理论,对老年相关公共服务供给机制的转变和路径进行探讨。本文主要的研究结论包括：一是老年人口规模扩大、结构变化不仅加大了公共财政和养老服务的供给压力,而且也对医疗卫生等面向整个人群的公共服务体系提出了新挑战。随着老年人口的快速增长以及高龄化趋势,公共财政对养老金的补助和医疗卫生费用支出不断增长,并且未来还有显著增加的趋势。养老服务的供给压力不断增大,一方面愿意入住养老机构的老年人数远不止3%的比例,另一方面老年人对居家养老服务的质量要求不断上升。医疗卫生服务结构趋于变化,由于老年人对医疗卫生的需求率和利用率远高于其他年龄组,老年人对医疗卫生的利用率提高势必会挤压其他年龄组的利用率,代际间的分配格局将趋于调整。二是老年人口空间移动及需求变动引发公共产品供需的结构性矛盾,要求政府提供多样化及多层次的公共服务产品,构建以需求为导向的公共产品供给机制。老年人口在地域分布及需求结构上的变动与原有的公共服务供给产生了一定的结构性矛盾。在地域分布方面,老年人口的郊区化分布与优质医疗资源过度集中在中心城区不匹配,部分区县养老机构的地域分布与老年人口的地域分布存在一定的不协调现象。在需求结构上,养老机构结构体系还不够合理,保障型床位和能为失能失智老人提供特殊服务的养老床位较少,与老年人的需求不相适应。这种结构性矛盾显著降低了公共服务的有效供给水平,造成了资源的浪费,促使政府要以老年人的真实需求为依据,努力改善公共服务的供给结构,从而为老年人提供多样化及多层次的公共服务产品。三是老年人口人户分离现象日益加剧,使得公共服务资源配置的准确性趋于下降,政府必须打破以户籍地为基础的公共服务供给方式,在现居住地提供适宜的老年公共服务。公共服务资源配置依据的常规年度数据容易包含一部分“户在人不在”人口,而又不能包含“人在户不在”人口,造成了区域内老年人口统计信息的失真。而建立在不准确人口信息基础上的公共服务配置很容易与老年人的真实需求发生偏离,影响了配置的准确性,降低了使用效率。随着流动人口的增多以及老年人口人户分离现象的日益加剧,这种以户籍地为依据的公共服务供给方式与实际需求产生了很大不适应,因此政府必须考虑打破这种方式,建立区域之间的公共服务合作供给机制,逐步探索实有老年人口属地化供给方式。在研究特色上,论文利用2010年“六普”人口数据,并通过与2000年“五普”的比较,全面分析了上海老年人口变动的新特点；系统分析了老年人口人户分离对公共服务供给的影响及内在机理,充实了现有为数不多的对老年人口人户分离影响的研究；突破了老年人口变动对养老服务影响的单一论证,试图较为系统地分析老年人口变动对公共财政、医疗卫生、养老服务等各方面的影响。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the aging society , the impact of the change of the elderly population on the social and economic aspects is becoming more and more obvious . The social resources for the elderly are becoming more and more popular . In the context of the government ' s efforts to strengthen the construction of the people ' s livelihood and the continuous improvement of the public service system , the influence of the old people ' s oral changes on the old age - related public services has been studied , which has very important theoretical and practical significance for the construction of the old - aged public service system . Based on the review of the changes of the elderly population and related public services , the paper summarizes the new features of the change of the elderly population in Shanghai during the new period based on the literature research method , the demographic analysis method , the spatial GIS analysis method and so on . Through the comparative study between the supply and demand , the author finds out the situation of incoordination and mismatch . On the basis of the comparative study between the supply and demand , the paper discusses the transformation and the path of the old - age related public service delivery mechanism . The main conclusions are as follows : First , the scale of the elderly population is enlarged , the structural change not only increases the supply pressure of the public finance and the old - age service , but also poses a new challenge to the public service system for the whole population , such as medical and health . With the rapid growth of the elderly population and the ageing trend , the demand rate and the utilization rate of the elderly for the old - age pension service are rising . On the other hand , the demand rate and the utilization rate of the elderly to the health care services are much higher than that of other age groups . Second , there is a structural contradiction between the movement of the elderly population and the supply and demand of public goods , which requires the government to provide diversified and multi - level public service products , and to construct a demand - oriented public goods supply mechanism . Third , the phenomenon of household separation of the elderly population is increasing , so that the accuracy of the public service resource allocation tends to decline , and the government must break the public service supply mode based on the census register , and provide the appropriate old public service in the current place of residence . The public service allocation based on the inaccurate population information can easily contain a part of the population , and the use efficiency is reduced . With the increase of the floating population and the increasing of the separation of the elderly population , the government must consider breaking this way , and establishing the supply mechanism of public service cooperation between the regions , and gradually explore the way of supply of the elderly population . On the basis of the research features , the paper makes use of the population data of " six popular " in 2010 , and comprehensively analyzes the new features of the change of the elderly population in Shanghai through the comparison with the " five popular " in 2000 . The paper analyzes the influence and the internal mechanism of the separation of the elderly population on the public service supply , enriches the single demonstration of the influence of the old people ' s mouth change on the old - age service , and attempts to analyze systematically the influence of the change of the elderly population on the public finance , medical and health care and the old - care service .

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.24;D630

【参考文献】