人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

发布时间：2018-02-01 13:59

本文关键词： 少儿抚养比老年抚养比城乡居民消费率　出处：《人口研究》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章通过扩展世代交叠模型,考察了人口年龄结构变化对一国居民消费率的影响。基于2000~2013年中国省级面板数据,系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明:在城镇地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生正向影响,且该正向影响都随收入增长率的提高而减弱;而在农村地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生负效应,少儿抚养比的负效应随收入增长率的提高而增强,老年抚养比的负效应却呈现"倒U型"特征。研究结论表明:生命周期消费理论在中国只适用于城镇地区,并不适用于农村地区,人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异十分显著。城镇地区少儿抚养比的大幅下降和农村地区老年抚养比的持续上升是中国居民消费率长期走低的重要原因。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, this paper investigates the influence of the age structure of population on the consumption rate of a country through an extended generation overlap model. The results of generalized moment estimation and threshold regression show that: in urban areas, both the dependency ratio of children and the elderly have a positive effect on the consumption rate, and the positive effect is weakened with the increase of income growth rate. In rural areas, the ratio of children to children and old age has a negative effect on the consumption rate, and the negative effect of children's dependency ratio increases with the increase of income growth rate. However, the negative effect of dependency ratio of old age is "inverted U-shaped". The conclusion of the study shows that the life-cycle consumption theory is only applicable to urban areas in China, not to rural areas. The effect of the change of population age structure on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents is very significant. The sharp decline of the children's dependency ratio in urban areas and the continuous increase of the old age dependency ratio in rural areas are the major reasons for the long-term decline in the consumption rate of Chinese residents. For reasons.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易学系;
【分类号】：C924.2
【正文快照】： 1引言改革开放以来,“三驾马车”——消费、投资和出口有力地推动着中国经济持续高速发展,成就了“中国式增长奇迹”。但自2010年后,我国经济增长呈下行态势,GDP增长率持续走低。2008年全球金融危机爆发以后,全球经济复苏乏力、国际市场需求持续低迷和内部比较优势逐步减弱等

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