生育政策调整对生育意愿影响研究——基于2015年追踪调查数据的发现

发布时间：2018-02-02 17:54

本文关键词： “全面两孩”政策生育意愿经济压力　出处：《西北人口》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用2015年生育意愿追踪调查数据,分析"单独两孩"政策出台后我国居民的生育意愿变化情况,单独一孩家庭打算生育二孩的比例为39.5%,普通一孩家庭为32.2%,较以前有所下降。前续调查对于是否生育二孩表示"说不好"的人群中,追踪调查显示大约60%倾向于不打算生育,政策目标人群由"打算生"到"不打算生"是生育意愿转变的主要趋势,经济压力大是影响生育二孩的首要原因,政策敏感人群所占比重在地区间存在差异,政策落地对优生筛查、孕产服务、幼教等方面提出更高要求,需要做好各项公共政策衔接,确保实施效果。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of fertility intention in 2015, this paper analyzes the change of fertility intention of Chinese residents after the policy of "single two children" was introduced. The proportion of one-child families planning to have two children is 39.5%. The average number of one-child families was 32.2, down from the previous survey, which showed that about 60% of those who said they were "not sure" about whether they had a second child tended not to have one. The policy target population from "intend to live" to "do not intend to have" is the main trend of the change of fertility intention, economic pressure is the primary reason of influencing the birth of the second child, the proportion of policy-sensitive population is different among different regions. The policy requires higher requirements on eugenics screening, maternity services, infant education and so on. It is necessary to link up various public policies to ensure the effect of implementation.
【作者单位】：吉林大学东北亚研究院;中国人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家科技部“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目“人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统”(项目编号:2012BAI40B01)
【分类号】：C924.21
【正文快照】： 一、研究背景中国的计划生育政策经历了反复探索和不断完善的发展过程。从“双独二孩”到“单独二孩”再到“全面二孩”,实现了政策的“三步走”。“全面二孩”生育政策实现了不分城乡、不分区域的一体化生育政策,比以往更加体现了制定计划生育公共政策的公平性原则,有利于适

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