人口老龄化对我国消费的影响

发布时间：2018-02-14 21:37

本文关键词： 人口老龄化消费协整理论误差修正模型　出处：《南京大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来中国一直保持着高速经济增长,年均GDP增长率接近10%,从2003年以来,更是连续保持着10%以上的告诉经济增长率。对于中国这个人口众多且经济尚处于转型期的发展中大国而言,能够在改革开放的30年间取得这些成绩无疑会让世界瞩目。然而国内居民消费作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一始终动力不足,这进一步成为现在中国经济发展的重要瓶颈。因此,分析目前中国所面临的一系列结构失衡问题,寻找目前中国消费不足的原因,对我国转变增长方式,实现经济进一步腾飞具有重要意义。本文将从人口老龄化的角度分析中国分析人口年龄结构的变化对于我国消费的影响。在对老龄化进行了详细的定义和界定后,对我国的人口老龄化从产生原因到发展现状等进行了系统的描述性分析。之后从理论分析的角度分析了人口老龄化影响消费的路径,分别分析了老龄化对整体消费的影响机制和老龄化对于消费结构的影响这两个方面。然后进入了本文的实证分析部分。在实证分析方面,本文考虑到人口老龄化对于消费的效率性影响,基于经典消费理论和相对收入理论,分别构造出了包含人口年龄结构影响变量的宏观消费函数。使用了1978年至2007年的数据,利用协整理论和误差修正模型分别分析了人口老龄化因素对于消费的长期均衡影响和短期波动影响。从回归结果来看,人口老龄化既会从长期均衡方面对消费的绝对量产生影响,又会通过误差修正机制对消费的短期波动产生影响,而且无论是对长期消费均衡还是对短期消费波动都存在负面影响。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has maintained rapid economic growth. The average annual GDP growth rate has been close to 10%. Since 2003, It has maintained an economic growth rate of more than 10%. For China, a large developing country with a large population and an economy in transition, To be able to achieve these results in the 30 years of reform and opening up will undoubtedly attract the attention of the world. However, as one of the "troika" that drives economic growth, domestic residents' consumption has always been underpowered. This has further become an important bottleneck in China's economic development. Therefore, by analyzing a series of structural imbalances faced by China at present, to find out the reasons for China's insufficient consumption at present, and to change the growth pattern of our country, It is of great significance to realize the further development of the economy. This paper will analyze the influence of the change of population age structure on consumption in China from the point of view of population aging. This paper makes a systematic and descriptive analysis of the aging of the population in China from the causes to the present situation of development, and then from the perspective of theoretical analysis, analyzes the path that the aging of the population affects consumption. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of aging on overall consumption and the influence of aging on consumption structure respectively. Then it enters the empirical analysis part of this paper. In this paper, considering the effect of population aging on consumption efficiency, based on the classical consumption theory and the relative income theory, the macro-consumption function including the influence variables of population age structure is constructed, respectively. The data from 1978 to 2007 are used. Based on cointegration theory and error correction model, this paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation of population aging factors on consumption. Population ageing affects both the absolute volume of consumption in terms of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations in consumption through error correction mechanisms. Moreover, both long-term consumption equilibrium and short-term consumption fluctuations have a negative impact.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24;F124

【引证文献】