中国经常账户盈余背后的人口结构效应

发布时间：2018-02-26 04:26

本文关键词： 经常账户盈余人口年龄结构面板数据　出处：《湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在中国人口结构性矛盾日益显现以及国际收支持续失衡的大背景下,从理论层面探讨人口结构等因素对其经常账户收支的影响机制,结合1997—2015年的省际面板数据分别运用面板静态和动态估计方法对理论模型进行检验,所得结果均十分稳健。综合来看,社会总抚养比与经常账户盈余存在显著负相关关系,但地区间也存在较大差异性,其中人口老龄化更为严重的东部地区其社会总抚养比与经常账户盈余的负相关关系较中、西部地区更为显著。因此在计划生育政策的严格约束下,有必要通过户籍制度改革以及城镇化建设来进一步提高相对剩余劳动力供给,同时通过劳动密集型制造业的跨区域转移,提高资源配置效率,进而在较长一段时间内继续保持劳动密集型产品的出口比较优势。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the structural contradiction of China's population and the persistent imbalance of the balance of payments in China, the influence mechanism of population structure and other factors on the current account income and expenditure is discussed from the theoretical level. Combined with the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015, the theoretical model is tested by using the static and dynamic panel estimation methods, and the results are very robust. In general, there is a significant negative correlation between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus. But there are great differences among different regions. The negative correlation between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus is more significant in the eastern region, where the aging population is more serious, and the western region is more significant. Therefore, under the strict restriction of the family planning policy, the relationship between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus is more significant. It is necessary to further improve the supply of relative surplus labor through the reform of household registration system and the construction of urbanization, and at the same time, improve the efficiency of resource allocation through the trans-regional transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing industries. And then in a longer period of time to continue to maintain labor-intensive products export comparative advantage.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F752.6

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