人口自然变动等因素对四川经济长期平稳较快发展的影响及对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 07:22

本文关键词： 人口因素人口自然变动经济发展人口红利　出处：《西南财经大学》2010年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：长期以来,人口问题一直是伴随中国社会经济发展中不可忽视的重要议题,同时也是关系国计民生的大问题。自上世纪70年代我国开始实行计划生育的国策以来,取得了积极有效的成果,主要表现在于为国民经济长久稳定的发展解除了后顾之忧。进入二十一世纪,经济、科技和社会发展迅速,取得了前所未有的成就,但也带来了一些严重的问题。比如,由于工业的迅速发展,造成了严重的资源浪费和环境污染,我们为此付出了沉重的代价。这个教训值得深刻记取。因此当前我们有必要对人口和经济之间的关系作探讨,为的是合理利用我国的人力资源优势,促进国民经济的可持续发展。正如党中央和国家领导人多次指出：“能不能坚持做好人口资源环境工作,关系到我国经济和社会的安全,关系到我国人民生活的质量,关系到中华民族生存和发展的长远大计。” 四川是人口大省,也是人力资本输出大省。在改革开放日益深入,国民经济发展到新形势的今天,如何处理好四川的人口问题,使四川的人口发展与四川的社会经济长期平稳较快发展相适应,进而成为经济发展的促进剂和催化器,值得政府相关部门和学者对此问题进行研究。本文通过对人口因素中人口自然变动及相关因素对四川经济发展的影响研究入手,对人口的自然变动相关指标附加其他与经济发展相关人口指标和四川经济发展轨迹进行对比分析。利用SPSS软件辅助,对四川各地区“人口——经济”系统进行分类,计算人口因素对四川经济发展的相关性和贡献率,同时对人口红利问题展开具体分析。本文共分8个章节：在绪论部分介绍了本文的研究背景、目的和意义、思路和方法以及文章的创新程度和本文的局限。在第二章中,对人口因素对经济发展的影响理论进行了综述和整理第三章对本文涉及的关键概念进行了界定第四章介绍了四川人口的发展变动趋势,重点从人口数量、人口素质发展、人口社会经济结构等方面进行阐述。第五章主要对四川经济发展情况进行了简要的概述。四川经济的总体情况与个省市进行横向对比,分析了四川人口收入水平的现状以及四川经济优势与挑战。第六章是对人口因素与四川经济长期平稳较快发展的实证分析,本章节主要通过对四川总体指标的分析和对四川各地区分析归类以及对四川人口红利特征分析三部分组成。第七章是对前面章节分析的总结,分别归纳人口因素对四川经济发展的影响,这里从人口数量、人口质量和人口结构3方面阐述。第八章是人口因素对四川经济长期平稳较快发展的对策研究。这里本文归纳为以下几点：首先抓住人口红利期促进经济发展,给出了具体的对策建议。第二是努力提高人口素质。第三是健全老龄人口的社会保障机制,完善养老保险制度。最后对城市化提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the population issue has been an important issue that can not be ignored in the course of China's social and economic development, and it is also a major issue related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Since -30s, the national policy of family planning has been implemented in our country. Has achieved positive and effective results, mainly manifested in the relief of worries for the long-term and stable development of the national economy. Since 21th century, the economy, science and technology, and society have developed rapidly and have achieved unprecedented achievements. But it also brought some serious problems. For example, because of the rapid development of industry, it caused serious waste of resources and environmental pollution. We have paid a heavy price for this. This lesson is worth remembering deeply. Therefore, it is necessary for us to explore the relationship between population and economy in order to make rational use of our human resources advantage. To promote the sustainable development of the national economy. Just as the party Central Committee and state leaders have pointed out on many occasions: "whether we can persist in the work of population, resources and environment is related to the economic and social security of our country and to the quality of life of our people." Related to the survival and development of the Chinese nation long-term plan. " Sichuan is a province with a large population and a large export of human capital. With the deepening of reform and opening up and the development of the national economy to the new situation, how to deal with the population problem in Sichuan well? To adapt the population development of Sichuan to the steady and rapid development of the social economy in Sichuan over a long period of time, and thus become the accelerator and catalyst for economic development, It is worthy of the relevant government departments and scholars to study this issue. This paper begins with the study of the natural changes in population factors and the impact of related factors on the economic development of Sichuan. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the related indicators of natural change of population and other population indicators related to economic development and the track of Sichuan's economic development. With the help of SPSS software, the "population-economy" system in various areas of Sichuan is classified. The relevance and contribution rate of population factors to Sichuan's economic development are calculated. At the same time, the issue of demographic dividend is analyzed concretely. This paper is divided into eight chapters: in the introduction part, the research background, purpose and significance of this paper are introduced. Ideas and methods as well as the innovative degree of the article and the limitations of this paper. In the second chapter, the theory of the influence of population factors on economic development is summarized and sorted out. The third chapter defines the key concepts involved in this paper. Chapter 4th introduces the changing trend of population development in Sichuan province, especially from the aspects of population quantity, population quality development, population social economic structure and so on. Chapter 5th gives a brief overview of Sichuan's economic development, compares the overall situation of Sichuan's economy with other provinces and cities, and analyzes the present situation of Sichuan's population income level, as well as the advantages and challenges of Sichuan's economy. Chapter 6th is an empirical analysis of the population factors and the steady and rapid development of Sichuan economy over a long period of time. This chapter mainly consists of three parts: the analysis of the overall indicators of Sichuan, the analysis and classification of the various regions in Sichuan and the analysis of the demographic dividend characteristics of Sichuan. Chapter 7th is a summary of the analysis of the previous chapters, which respectively induces the impact of population factors on the economic development of Sichuan Province, which is elaborated from three aspects: population quantity, population quality and population structure. Chapter 8th is a study on the countermeasures of population factors to the steady and rapid development of Sichuan economy in the long term. Here, this paper summarizes the following points: first of all, seize the period of population dividend to promote economic development, The second is to improve the quality of the population, the third is to perfect the social security mechanism of the aged population and to perfect the old-age insurance system. Finally, some suggestions on urbanization are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C92-05;F127;F224

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