人口老龄化对山西省产业结构影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 02:13

本文关键词： 人口老龄化产业结构优化产业结构　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口作为推动经济增长的重要因素,一个国家或地区的人口数量、年龄结构以及素质水平对于其产业结构有着重要的影响。就人口年龄结构而言,我国于1999年跻身老龄化社会,而山西省在2003年65岁及以上人口占比时达到了7.1%,这标志着山西省也开始进入老龄化社会。而自2008年蔓延全球的金融危机以来,山西省经济增长缓慢,2015年及2016年上半年的经济增速均位列全国倒数第二,传统单一的经济增长模式难以为继,这逼迫着山西省产业结构急需调整和升级。在山西省老龄化的趋势背景下,本文通过研究人口老龄化对山西省产业结构的影响,为山西省产业结构转型升级提供理论支持,并降低人口老龄化所带来的不利影响,促进山西省老年产业以及现代服务业的发展,推动山西省的经济摆脱困境,实现快速健康发展。本文首先对人口老龄化以及产业结构这两个主题概念进行了界定,并通过国内外相关研究及文献资料加以分析。随后又从正面和负面分别探讨了人口老龄化对第一产业、第二产业和第三产业所带来的相关影响。接着在对山西省人口老龄化及产业结构现状进行分析中,分析了山西省人口老龄化及三大产业的发展现状及特点,并运用了Logistic模型对山西省未来人口老龄化未来走向形势进行了模型预测,预测得出山西省老龄化趋势将不断加深。在现状分析的基础上,又对山西省人口老龄化对本省产业结构的影响通过构建计量模型进行了实证分析,得出了山西省人口老龄化同产业结构发展间存在着长期均衡稳定的关系,它们互为格兰杰原因,且山西省一二产业发展与人口老龄化负相关,而三产业发展与之则呈正相关关系。最后,基于实证结果及山西省产业经济的实际情况得出,山西省一方面应当通过补贴激励生育及鼓励老年人再就业等方式减缓人口老龄化带来的不利影响,另一方面也要在老龄化大背景下加大养老器械设施的建设,优化老年服务市场,发展老年产业同时推进现代服务业为代表的第三产业发展,进而优化产业结构。
[Abstract]:Population as an important factor to promote economic growth, the number of population, age structure and quality level of a country or region have an important impact on its industrial structure. As far as the age structure of population is concerned, in 1999, China became an aging society. In 2003, Shanxi Province reached 7.1 percent of the population aged 65 and over, marking the beginning of an aging society in Shanxi Province, and since 2008, when the global financial crisis spread, The economic growth of Shanxi Province is slow. In 2015 and the first half of 2016, the economic growth rate was ranked second from the bottom in the whole country, and the traditional single economic growth model was difficult to sustain. Under the background of the aging trend of Shanxi Province, this paper studies the influence of the aging population on the industrial structure of Shanxi Province, and provides theoretical support for the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of Shanxi Province. To reduce the adverse effects of population aging, to promote the development of Shanxi's elderly industry and modern service industry, and to promote Shanxi's economy to extricate itself from difficulties. To achieve rapid and healthy development, this paper first defines the two thematic concepts of population aging and industrial structure. And through domestic and foreign relevant research and literature analysis, and then from the positive and negative aspects of the population aging on the primary industry, Then in the analysis of the current situation of population aging and industrial structure in Shanxi Province, the paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of population aging and the development of the three major industries in Shanxi Province. Logistic model is used to forecast the future trend of population aging in Shanxi Province, and it is predicted that the trend of aging in Shanxi Province will continue to deepen. Through the empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on the industrial structure of Shanxi Province, it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium and stability relationship between the aging population and the development of industrial structure in Shanxi Province. They are the cause of Granger each other, and the development of primary and secondary industries in Shanxi Province is negatively related to the aging population, while the development of the third industry is positively correlated. Finally, based on the empirical results and the actual situation of the industrial economy in Shanxi Province, it is concluded that, Shanxi Province should, on the one hand, alleviate the adverse effects of population aging by subsidizing fertility and encouraging old people to re-find jobs, on the other hand, they should also increase the construction of old-age equipment facilities under the background of aging. Optimizing the service market for the elderly, developing the aged industry and promoting the development of the tertiary industry represented by the modern service industry, and then optimizing the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;C924.24

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