人口老龄化、技术创新与经济增长——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 13:45

  本文关键词： 人口老龄化 技术创新 劳动生产率 经济增长　出处：《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通常认为人口老龄化会导致技术创新水平下降并制约经济增长,本文通过理论分析和实证检验对此提出质疑。虽然老年人口本身的创新能力和创新动机会随着年龄增长而下降,但对整个社会而言,老龄化可以通过要素禀赋结构改变和人力资本积累对经济增长产生技术创新效应。利用中国1997-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验,我们发现,人口老龄化对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,老龄化通过与技术创新的正向交互作用促进了经济增长;随着老龄化程度的加深,老龄化通过技术创新对经济增长影响的总边际效应递增。本文研究证实了老龄化能够通过技术创新路径抵消对经济增长的不利影响。随着中国老龄化深化,加快技术创新、提升高龄劳动力及老年人口对技术变革的适应性对中国积极应对老龄化和实现经济转型发展具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:It is generally believed that the aging of the population will lead to the decline of the level of technological innovation and restrict the economic growth, which is questioned by this paper through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, although the innovation ability and motivation of the elderly population itself will decline with the increase of age. But for society as a whole, aging can produce technological innovation effects on economic growth through factor endowment structure change and human capital accumulation. Population aging has a significant positive impact on economic growth. Ageing promotes economic growth through a positive interaction with technological innovation. The total marginal effect of aging on economic growth is increasing through technological innovation. This paper proves that aging can counteract the adverse impact on economic growth through technological innovation path. With the deepening of aging in China, technological innovation is accelerated. It is of great significance for China to actively deal with the aging and realize the economic transformation and development by enhancing the adaptability of the elderly labor force and the elderly population to the technological change.
【作者单位】： 中国农业大学国家农业农村发展研究院;中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心;北京交通大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：C924.24;F124.1;F124.3
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本文编号：1547544