城乡养老中“多子多福”的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 01:23

本文选题：多子多福　切入点：养老　出处：《华中师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,我国的人口发展老龄化与少子化并存的趋势不断加强,一方面,老龄人口比重不断提高；另一方面,随生育率的不断降低,少子化问题凸显。家庭结构发生重要变化,其中最显著的是家庭规模缩小。特别是在我国独特的计划生育制度限制下,四二一家庭比重不断增加,劳动年龄人口的抚养比增加,养老压力加大。在这一背景下,对于调整生育政策、逐步放开二孩生育的呼声不断高涨。这被认为是缓解养老压力的重要途径。但对于是否子女数量增加的确能够增强家庭的养老功能存在较大质疑。这为我们提供了一个很好的视角来论证社会转型时期“多子多福”的现实可能性。本文使用“宜昌市老年人口状况调查”数据,选取了其中的一些问题,建构了本文的指标体系,并提出四个假设,使用定量分析的方法来考察子女数量对老年人养老状况的影响,即是否“多子多福”仍然存在。基于二元的城乡结构可能造成的差异,笔者对城乡进行了分层来分别进行考察。通过研究分析,本文主要得出了以下结论：首先,否定了“多子多福”的假设。研究结果表明子女数目与老年人的养老状况间不存在显著相关关系,“多子”未必“多福”。按照城市和农村进行分层,发现子女数量多,并未改善老年人的经济状况、健康状况、精神状况以及生活满意度。因此,依靠增加子女数量来缓解养老压力是不可行的。其次,对于子女数量多并未能改善老年人养老状况的原因的考察应从养老资源的供需结构出发。子女的养老支持与老年人的养老需求及其结构有关。同时不同养老资源供应主体间存在互补效应。最后,家庭作为养老资源供给的三大主体之一,其养老功能逐渐弱化。所谓的回归家庭和放开生育政策来缓解家庭和国家的养老压力的观点不具有科学依据。对于缓解养老压力来说,完善养老体系更具有可行性。
[Abstract]:At present, the trend of the aging of the population and the coexisting of the minority children in our country is constantly strengthened. On the one hand, the proportion of the aged population is constantly increasing; on the other hand, with the continuous decrease of the fertility rate, the problem of the minority children becomes prominent, and the family structure has undergone important changes. Among them, the most significant is the reduction of family size. In particular, under the restriction of our country's unique family planning system, the proportion of 421 families is constantly increasing, the dependency ratio of the working-age population is increasing, and the pressure for the aged is increasing. In this context, With regard to the adjustment of fertility policy, The call for a gradual release of the birth of two children is rising. This is considered an important way to ease the pressure on the aged. However, there is much doubt that the increase in the number of children can really enhance the function of the family in the care of the aged. This provides us with. A good perspective to demonstrate the social transformation period, "many children and many blessings" the reality of the possibility. This paper uses the data of Yichang City elderly population Survey, selects some of the problems, constructs the index system of this paper, and puts forward four hypotheses. The quantitative analysis method is used to investigate the influence of the number of children on the old-age status of the elderly, that is, whether there are still many children and more blessings. Based on the differences that may be caused by the dual structure of urban and rural areas, the author makes a separate investigation on urban and rural areas. Through research and analysis, this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:. First of all, the hypothesis of "more children and more happiness" is denied. The results of the study show that there is no significant correlation between the number of children and the old-age status of the elderly, and that "multiple children" are not necessarily "more fortunate." according to the stratification of urban and rural areas, the number of children is found to be large. It does not improve the economic, health, mental and life satisfaction of the elderly. Therefore, it is not feasible to rely on increasing the number of children to relieve the stress of the aged. Secondly, The reasons for the large number of children and the failure to improve the old-age status of the elderly should be examined from the perspective of the supply and demand structure of the old-age resources, and the support of the children is related to the old-age needs of the elderly and their structure. There are complementary effects among suppliers. Finally, as one of the three main bodies in the supply of old-age resources, There is no scientific basis for the idea of returning to the family and opening up the fertility policy to ease the pressure on the family and the state. It is more feasible to improve the pension system for relieving the pressure on the aged.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.24

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