东北地区人口年龄结构对居民消费影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 02:21

本文选题：人口年龄结构　切入点：少儿抚养比　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自我国改革开放以来,经济得到了高速发展,然而居民消费水平并不能与经济增长保持一致的增长速度,反而长期以来都是一个下降的趋势,作为我国的一个经济大区,东北的居民消费率虽然在最近几年有缓慢的上升趋势,但是从长期来看仍然是较为明显的下降趋势。在东北地区居民消费水平存在问题的情况下,探究影响居民消费的因素就存在很显著的现实意义,因此本文站在人口年龄结构的角度,分析其是否对东北地区居民消费存在显著影响以及怎样的影响。我们从理论分析和实证分析两个角度入手,期待能够得到一个比较完善的结果,并为我国东北地区日后的政策定制提供一定的理论基础。近年来,我国东北地区人口特点突出,其中体现在人口年龄结构上的特点也较为明显,一方面,东北地区少年抚养比持续下降,总和生育率低;另一方面,东北地区人口老龄化日趋加剧,辽宁省、吉林省和黑龙江省都先后进入了老龄化社会。东北地区的居民消费率变化趋势和全国相似,呈现一个整体下降的趋势,根据其变化特点,可以将1985-2015年东北地区居民消费率的变化趋势分为四个阶段,分别是波动中整体下降阶段、上升阶段、略有波动的下降阶段和缓慢上升阶段。令人欣慰的是,近些年东北三省的居民消费率都有一个小幅度的上升趋势。本文的研究结果表明,对于整个东北地区而言,人口年龄结构对居民消费率有着显著影响,并且少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对居民消费率都是正方向的影响。对于辽宁省、吉林省和黑龙江省单独来说,人口年龄结构和居民消费率也是存在协整关系的,即二者之间存在长期的均衡关系,并且少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和居民消费率之间存在单向的因果关系,即少儿抚养比和老年抚养比能够影响居民消费率,但居民消费率并不能够影响少儿抚养比和老年抚养比。根据上述分析,我们认为,积极应对人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响,应从转变居民消费观念、多渠道提高生育水平、完善老年产业,改善养老保障模式、贯彻延长退休年龄政策等方面采取相应对策。
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up, the economy has been developing at a high speed. However, the consumption level of the residents is not in line with the growth rate of the economic growth, on the contrary, it has been a downward trend for a long time, as a large economic region of our country. Although the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China has a slow upward trend in recent years, in the long run, it is still a more obvious downward trend. In the case of problems in the consumption level of residents in the Northeast region, It is of great practical significance to explore the factors that affect the residents' consumption, so this paper stands at the angle of the age structure of the population. This paper analyzes whether there is a significant impact on the consumption of residents in Northeast China and what kind of influence it has. We hope to get a more perfect result from the two angles of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In recent years, the characteristics of population in Northeast China are prominent, especially in the age structure of population. On the one hand, On the other hand, the aging of the population in Northeast China is getting more and more serious. In Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province have successively entered an aging society. The trend of change in the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China is similar to that of the whole country, showing an overall downward trend, according to its changing characteristics. From 1985 to 2015, the trend of change in the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China can be divided into four stages, namely, the period of overall decline of fluctuation, the stage of rising, the stage of slight fluctuation and the stage of slow rise. In recent years, the consumption rate of residents in the three provinces of Northeast China has a small upward trend. The results of this paper show that, for the whole Northeast region, the age structure of the population has a significant impact on the consumption rate of residents. For Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province alone, there is a cointegration relationship between the age structure of the population and the resident consumption rate. That is, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, and there is a one-way causal relationship between the child dependency ratio, the old age dependency ratio and the resident consumption rate, that is, the child dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio can affect the resident consumption rate. According to the above analysis, we believe that to deal with the impact of the age structure of the population on the consumption of the residents, we should change the concept of consumption of the residents and raise the fertility level through multiple channels. To perfect the aged industry, to improve the old-age security model and to carry out the policy of prolonging the retirement age.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1

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