我国人口城市化与土地城市化关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 10:45

本文选题：城市化率　切入点：人口城市化　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来,我国经历了约30年高速发展的城市化过程,人口与土地是这一过程的两个基本方面。本文首先分析了我国人口城镇化的现状,发现各省的人口规模与城镇化率相对位置较为稳定研究,然后主要研究了人口城市化与土地城市化两者间的关系,分别使用城镇人口规模与建成区面积作变量,首先构建了全国城镇人口规模与建成区面积的双变量时间序列VAR模型,应用Granger因果检验发现城镇人口规模变化是建成区面积变化的Granger原因,而建成区面积的变化不是城镇人口规模变化的Granger原因；然后以此结论为基础,再应用省级面板数据模型回归分析我国省级单位内的建成区面积与城镇人口规模、第一、二、三产业生产总值之间的相关性,发现回归结果在1%的水平上具有高度的显著性,并且第一产业生产总值的变化与建成区面积的变化呈负相关关系,其他变量的变化与建成区面积的变化都成正向关系。其中城镇人口规模的相关强度最高,第三产业生产总值、第一产业生产总值、第二产业生产总值依次降低。这说明城市人口规模的扩大、服务业的发展、以及地区农业向工业的转变与工业的发展对城市建成区面积扩张的贡献依次降低。因此验证了在城市化的进程中,人的城市化是核心,非农产业的发展是辅助手段,土地城市化是其载体,而非刺激因素,由此得以厘清土地与人口在城市化进程中关系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has experienced a rapid development of urbanization for about 30 years. Population and land are two basic aspects of this process. It is found that the relative position of population scale and urbanization rate in each province is relatively stable, and then the relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization is mainly studied, using urban population size and area of built-up area as variables, respectively. Firstly, a two-variable time series VAR model of urban population size and area is constructed. The Granger causality test is used to find that the change of urban population size is the Granger cause of the area change. And the change of the area of the built-up area is not the Granger reason of the change of the urban population scale, and then based on the conclusion, the author uses the provincial panel data model to regress the area of the built-up area and the urban population scale in the provincial units of our country, first, second, It is found that the regression result is highly significant at the level of 1%, and the change of the primary industry GDP is negatively related to the change of the area of the built-up area. The change of other variables is positively related to the change of the area of the built-up area. The correlation intensity of the size of urban population is the highest, the GDP of the tertiary industry, the gross domestic product of the primary industry, The GDP of the second industry has decreased in turn. This shows that the expansion of the urban population and the development of the service industry, The transformation from regional agriculture to industry and the contribution of industrial development to the expansion of urban built-up areas are reduced in turn. Therefore, it is verified that in the process of urbanization, the urbanization of human beings is the core, and the development of non-agricultural industries is the auxiliary means. Land urbanization is a carrier, not a stimulus factor, which can clarify the relationship between land and population in the process of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;C924.24;F301.2

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