中国人口出生性别比空间聚集性及影响因素

发布时间：2018-03-10 09:30

  本文选题：出生性别比　切入点：空间回归　出处：《郑州大学学报(医学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的:采用空间回归模型分析中国人口出生性别比的影响因素。方法:收集2010年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市出生男婴数和女婴数及经济、教育和医疗等数据,拟合多重线性回归模型和空间回归模型。结果:空间相关分析显示中国人口出生性别比存在空间聚集性(Moran's I=0.281,Z=4.093,P0.001)。多重线性回归模型和空间回归模型均显示少数民族人口比例(%)、平均每千人卫生机构床位数(张)、人口出生率(‰)和二胎及以上胎次比例(%)是中国人口出生性别比的影响因素;多重线性回归模型4个变量的β分别为-0.201、-6.237、2.458和-0.507(P均0.05),模型R~2为0.760;空间回归模型4个变量的β分别为-0.199、-6.314、2.451和-0.504(P均0.05),模型R~2为0.816。结论:中国人口出生性别比呈现空间聚集性;影响中国人口出生性别比的因素为少数民族人口比例、平均每千人卫生机构床位数、人口出生率和二胎及以上胎次比例。
[Abstract]:Objective: to use spatial regression model to analyze the factors influencing the sex ratio of Chinese population at birth. Methods: in 2010, data on the number of male and female infants, economic, educational and medical care were collected in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. Fitting multiple linear regression model and spatial regression model. Results: spatial correlation analysis showed that the birth sex ratio of Chinese population had spatial aggregation. The multiple linear regression model and the spatial regression model both showed that there was a spatial aggregation of the birth sex ratio of the Chinese population. Both the multiple linear regression model and the spatial regression model showed ethnic minorities. The average number of beds per 1,000 population in health institutions (Zhang, the birth rate (per 鈥，

本文编号：1592745