河北省近十年0岁人口组性别比的初步估算

发布时间：2018-03-11 16:19

本文选题：0岁人口组性别比　切入点：全员人口数据库　出处：《河北师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：基于2009年12月31日24时河北省全员人口数据库时点数据，统计出2009年0-9岁分年龄别分性别人数；利用河北省第五次人口普查公布的0-9岁分年龄别、分性别死亡率回推，得到河北省2000-2009年各自然年度0岁人口组性别比。结果表明，2000年河北省0岁人口组性别比为116.84，高于河北省第五次人口普查公布的114.07。假定3孩及以上孩次为五普数据中的出生漏报群体，按照全员人口数据库修正后的五普0岁人口组性别比由114.07提高到了115.59，说明河北省第五次人口普查公布的0岁人口组性别比偏低，政策外出生人口瞒报是导致性别比偏低的主要原因。由于全员人口数据库估算的2004-2009各自然年度0岁人口组性别比起伏较大，且明显低于2000-2003各自然年度0岁人口组性别比，说明：全员人口数据库0-5岁年龄组别人口个案信息存在政策外出生人口瞒报现象，但随着孩子入学，，需要登记户口，年满6周岁的瞒报人口才逐步浮出水面，基于全员人口数据库推算出的河北省2000-2003各自然年度0岁人口组性别比相对可信。利用这一方法，估算的河北省分市县0岁人口组性别比存在显著区域差异。制作了2003年河北省0岁人口组性别比专题图，发现邯郸、邢台、沧州等地0岁人口组性别比严重偏高。借助地理信息系统中IDW插值方法，对县级0岁人口组性别比进行插值运算，发现107等值线与河北省山地边界相似，更好的说明了山地与平原性别比的差异。值得注意的是张家口、承德107等值线与其行政边界相似，这可能是由于两市生育政策不同造成的。基于全员人口数据库，推算河北省近十年0岁人口组分孩次性别比，发现一孩性别比始终处于正常水平；二孩性别比偏高，但呈现缓慢下降趋势；多孩性别比畸高，且呈现持续走高态势。实践证明，利用全员人口数据库，可以动态监测分区域、分孩次的0岁人口组性别比，全员人口数据库是辅助监测出生人口性别比的有力支撑平台。
[Abstract]:Based on the time point data of the whole population database of Hebei Province at 24:00 on December 31st 2009, the author calculates the number of people aged 0-9 years old and sex classification on 2009, and makes use of the age classification of 0-9 years old published by the 5th population census in Hebei Province to push back the gender mortality rate. The sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2009 was obtained. The result shows that in 2000, the sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province is 116.84, which is higher than that of 114.07 in 5th population census of Hebei Province. The underreporting of births in the. According to the revision of the whole population database, the sex ratio of the 0 year old population of the five people was raised from 114.07 to 115.59, indicating that the sex ratio of the 0 year old population group published by the 5th population census in Hebei Province was on the low side. The underreporting of birth population outside the policy is the main reason for the low sex ratio. Because the sex ratio of the population aged 0 years in 2004-2009 estimated by the whole population database fluctuates greatly, and is obviously lower than the sex ratio of the population aged 0 years in each natural year of 2000-2003. Explanation: in the population database of 0-5 years old, there is a phenomenon of underreporting of the birth population outside the policy. However, with the children enrolled in the school, they need to register their hukou, and the under-reported population who have reached the age of 6 has gradually surfaced. Based on the whole population database, the sex ratio of 0-year-old population in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2003 is relatively reliable. Using this method, The estimated sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province is significantly different from that of the 0 year old population in Hebei Province. In 2003, the thematic map of sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province was made, and it was found that Handan, Xingtai, The sex ratio of 0 year old population in Cangzhou and other places was on the high side. With the help of IDW interpolation method in GIS, the gender ratio of 0 year old population at county level was interpolated, and it was found that the 107 isoline was similar to the mountain boundary of Hebei province. It is worth noting that Zhangjiakou, the Chengde 107 isoline is similar to its administrative boundary, which may be due to the difference in fertility policies between the two cities. It is found that the ratio of one child to one child is always at normal level, the ratio of two children is high, but it is declining slowly, the multi-child sex ratio is abnormally high, and shows a trend of rising continuously, and the practice proves that the ratio of one child to one child is always in the normal level. The whole population database can be used to dynamically monitor the sex ratio of the 0 year old population in the sub-region. The whole population database is a powerful support platform for monitoring the sex ratio of the birth population.
【学位授予单位】：河北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】