安徽省生态足迹变动趋势研究
发布时间：2018-03-13 18:28
本文选题：安徽省 切入点：生态足迹 出处：《安徽大学》2015年硕士论文 论文类型：学位论文
【摘要】：可持续发展是一种全新的发展战略和发展观,如何将可持续发展概念由理论阶段发展到可操作阶段,定量测度发展的可持续性成为了国内外研究的热点,其定量测度的核心问题就是确定人类的发展是否存在于生态系统的承载能力可持续发展范围内,但由于人们对于可持续发展评价因子指标的选取和权重确定方面侧重点各不相同,较大的制约了区域的比较研究,而生态足迹则紧扣了可持续发展中人与自然生态关系的内涵,实现了定量衡量真正具有区域可比性可持续发展研究,可以全面地衡量在一定的社会经济发展阶段人们的社会活动带来的资源消耗与当地环境承载力之间的差距。其理论概念和模型不仅角度新颖、形象易理解而且内涵丰富,具有较强的系统性、可操作性和全球可比性的显著优势,得到了研究机构和学者的广泛关注,成为了目前定量测量可持续发展的重要工具。为了能够定量反映安徽省人口与生态的关系,体现可持续发展的内涵,本研究采用了生态足迹模型对安徽的可持续发展状况进行定量测度评估。生态足迹与生态承载力都是指土地面积,其中,生态足迹是指满足人口消费的资源和吸纳这些人口消费所产生的废弃物所需要的生态生产性土地面积,生态承载力是指该区域现有的生态生产性土地面积。在生态足迹理论中根据土地产量的不同水平可以将生产能力土地划分为6大类土地,分别为：耕地、林地、草地、水域、建筑用地和化石燃料用地。本研究原始数据主要来自2001-2014年安徽省统计年鉴。研究分析了自2000-2013年以来安徽省生态足迹的动态变化趋势,结合万元GDP生态足迹、产业结构资源利用效率、生态人口容量等指标衡量单位生态足迹在经济、产业、人口容量方面的资源利用效率,利用因子分析方法结合SPSS统计软件对影响安徽省生态足迹增长的驱动因子进行了深入分析,找出安徽省影响可持续发展的因素。研究结果显示：①2013年安徽省常住人口的人均生态足迹为3.201ha,人均生态承载力为0.488ha,生态赤字由2000年的1.08ha/人增长到2013年的2.713ha/人,2000-2013年间安徽省一直处于不可发展的状态,2009年安徽省由较严重的生态赤字区转为了严重生态赤字区。②安徽省人均生态足迹年增长率2007年之后达到了6.71%,比2003年前增长速度快了2倍之多,呈直线上升趋势。2000-2013年间的生态承载力基本保持不变,生态赤字是随生态足迹增长不断上升的。③碳足迹是安徽省比重最大增长最快的部分,在2013年化石能源足迹中煤、焦炭等污染严重的碳足迹比重占当年化石能源足迹的84%,而环保能源足迹比重不足1%,安徽省能源结构严重不合理。安徽省六类生产性土地中仅有林地和建筑用地呈人均生态盈余状况,其余四类用地均为生态赤字,化石能源用地赤字最大。④2000-2013年间安徽省资源利用效率不断提升,但目前年均8.6%的资源利用效率提高速度仍赶不上经济年均15.6%的增长速度。自2004年安徽省大力推动经济发展战略,2005年开始第二产业比重迅速上升超过第三产业为主导,2013年比重高达54.65%,但第二产业人均GDP生态足迹2005年后一直高于第一产业和第三产业,说明第二产业的单位生态足迹创造财富值在三产业中最低,产业结构不合理带来了单位生态足迹的高消耗。在生态人口承载力方面,生态人口容量不断下降,实际人口赤字呈增长趋势,人口对于生态环境压力不容忽视。⑤安徽省生态足迹增长的驱动因子统计分析显示,安徽省生态足迹的增长原因是由人口、经济、社会等众多因子综合影响的结果,其中最主要的影响因子是第二产业比重、碳足迹两个变量。相比与常住人口规模,人口文化素质对于安徽省生态足迹的影响更为显著。最后,基于安徽省生态足迹变化趋势定量研究的结果,为目前政府建设“生态强省”、“美好安徽”的战略目标,实现人口、经济与生态环境可持续发展道路提出了有针对性的建议。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is a development strategy and a new concept, how the concept of sustainable development from the theoretical stage to the operation stage, quantitative measurement of sustainable development has become a hot research at home and abroad, the core problem is to determine the quantitative measurement of human development exists in the ecosystem carrying capacity of sustainable development scope but, because the index of sustainable development for the people to select and determine the weights of evaluation factors in different aspects, the constraints of the larger comparative study area, while the ecological footprint is closely linked to the connotation of sustainable development in the ecological relationship between man and nature, to achieve a quantitative measure of true comparability with regional sustainable development research can comprehensive measure of resource consumption and local environmental carrying capacity in the stage of social and economic development of the poor people's social activities From the concept and theory. The model not only new perspective, image understanding and rich connotation, is a systemic, operable and global comparable significant advantages, has received wide attention from research institutions and scholars, has become an important tool for the quantitative measurement of sustainable development at present. In order to reflect the quantitative relationship of Anhui Province the population and ecology, embodies the connotation of sustainable development, this study adopts the ecological footprint model of sustainable development status in Anhui are quantitatively measure. The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity refers to the land area, the ecological footprint refers to ecological productive land area to meet the consumption of population resources and absorb these generated population consumption the waste is needed, the ecological carrying capacity refers to the ecological productive land area in the region. The existing ecological footprint theory according to the yield of different land The level of the production capacity of the land can be divided into 6 categories of land, farmland, woodland, respectively: grassland, water, land and fossil fuel land construction. This study mainly from the original data statistics in Anhui province 2001-2014 years Yearbook. Research and analysis of the 2000-2013 years since the Anhui Province ecological footprint dynamic change trend, combined with GDP ecological footprint, ecological resources utilization efficiency of industrial structure, population capacity and other indicators to measure unit of ecological footprint in the economy, industry, population capacity utilization efficiency of the resources, analysis methods combined with SPSS statistical software for the influence of the ecological footprint of Anhui province growth driving factors are analyzed by using factor, to find out the influencing factors of sustainable development in Anhui province. The study result shows that the ecological footprint per capita in 2013 the resident population of Anhui province is 3.201ha, the per capita ecological carrying capacity was 0.488ha, the ecological deficit by 2000 1.08ha/浜哄闀垮埌2013骞寸殑2.713ha/浜，
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