北京人口红利的结构性分析和形势预判

发布时间：2018-03-14 04:03

本文选题：首都北京　切入点：人口红利　出处：《北京社会科学》2014年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本研究利用2010年人口普查数据和2012年劳动力市场数据,深入分析了首都人口红利的基本特征和走势。研究发现:第一,户籍劳动适龄人口总量充足,但未来可补给的人口减少;35岁以前户籍就业人口占比不高,户籍人口分年龄别的就业率"两头"偏低;第二,2020年以后,支撑北京人口红利的人口流出省份劳动年龄人口规模将减少,北京常住劳动年龄人口的存量和增量都会受到影响。由此判断,未来北京将可能遭遇"用工荒",既有"总量荒"问题,也有"结构荒"问题。对此,我们提出三项政策建议:加快人口红利向人力资本红利转变;加快经济方式转变,提升就业需求层次;在促进流动人口社会融合的同时,充分调动户籍人口参与就业。
[Abstract]:Based on the census data of 2010 and labor market data of 2012, this study deeply analyzes the basic characteristics and trends of the capital's demographic dividend. However, in the future, the number of people who can be replenished will be reduced by a small proportion of the employed population before the age of 35, and the employment rate of the household registration population by age is on the low side; second, after 2020, the employment rate of the household registration population is on the low side. The size of the working-age population in the provinces that support Beijing's demographic dividend will be reduced, and the stock and increase of the working-age population in Beijing will be affected. In the future, Beijing is likely to encounter a "shortage of workers", both the "total shortage" problem and the "structural shortage" problem. To this end, we put forward three policy recommendations: to accelerate the transformation of the population dividend to the human capital dividend; and to accelerate the transformation of the economic mode. Raise the level of employment demand; promote the social integration of floating population, fully mobilize the household registration population to participate in employment.
【作者单位】：北京行政学院社会学教研部;
【基金】：北京社科基金一般项目(12SHB013) 2012年北京社科联青年人才项目
【分类号】：C924.24

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