德阳市人口承载力及适度人口研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 18:01

本文选题：人口承载力　切入点：适度人口　出处：《四川师范大学》2010年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 人口问题的实质乃是人口发展问题。课题研究从人口问题出发,把人口问题归结为人口、资源、环境协调问题,通过建立德阳市人口承载力评价指标体系,分别在构建人口与耕地、人口与环境的子系统基础上,运用多种数学模型、从定性与定量方面探讨在不同资源约束条件下的德阳市人口承载力;同时通过人口系统P-E-R模型计算出德阳市2020年适度人口承载力,最后在此基础上得到了德阳市2020年最大人口承载力和适度人口承载力下对资源、环境的需求量,从而为解决德阳市人口发展问题提供新的思路。本文的主要结论如下:第一,对人口承载力的研究是符合社会发展需求的,有其必然性和重要的现实意义。研究德阳市人口承载力的目的是为了实现人口、资源、环境的协调发展,最终实现可持续发展。第二,本文通过灰色系统模型对德阳市未来发展人口进行了预测。第三,通过定量及定性探讨德阳市人口承载力,寻求德阳市协调发展途径,从而为解决德阳市人口问题提供决策依据。第四,针对德阳市目前人口、资源、环境发展现状,提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The essence of population problem is the problem of population development. From the point of view of population problem, the paper puts the population problem down to the coordination of population, resources and environment, and establishes the evaluation index system of population carrying capacity in Deyang City. On the basis of constructing the subsystems of population, cultivated land, population and environment, this paper discusses the population carrying capacity of Deyang City under different resource constraints from qualitative and quantitative aspects by using various mathematical models. At the same time, through the P-E-R model of population system, the appropriate population carrying capacity of Deyang city in 2020 is calculated. Finally, the demand for resources and environment under the maximum population carrying capacity in 2020 and the appropriate population carrying capacity in Deyang is obtained. So as to solve the problem of population development in Deyang City provides a new way of thinking. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the study of population carrying capacity is in line with the needs of social development, and has its inevitability and important practical significance. The purpose of studying the population carrying capacity of Deyang City is to realize population and resources. The coordinated development of the environment will ultimately achieve sustainable development. Second, this paper forecasts the future population development of Deyang City through grey system model. Thirdly, the population carrying capacity of Deyang City is discussed quantitatively and qualitatively. In order to solve the population problem of Deyang city, the author provides the basis for decision making. 4th, and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions in view of the present situation of population, resources and environment development in Deyang city.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

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