全面二孩政策下河北省二孩生育意愿调查研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 00:17

本文选题：全面二孩政策　切入点：生育意愿　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为了应对人口老龄化、劳动力资源匮乏等问题,我国于2016年开始实施“全面二孩”的政策,希望以此来调整我国的生育状况、改善人口年龄结构。“全面二孩”政策施行后人们的生育意愿会如何变化、人口年龄结构会如何发展、影响他们再生育意愿的因素到底是什么,这值得我们进行一番系统地研究。本文以河北省为例,首先调查了“全面二孩”政策施行后一孩家庭的二孩生育意愿,之后通过问卷数据及其他相关数据利用队列要素法并结合人口预测软件padis-int对河北省的人口进行了预测,最后利用二元离散选择模型对二孩生育意愿的影响因素进行了分析。经研究发现:“全面二孩”政策颁布后,河北省的二孩生育意愿没有显著增加。河北省未来人口老龄化程度依然很严重,呈现出了不断上升的趋势,“全面二孩”政策预期效果不理想。经过影响因素分析发现:是否生育二孩主要受到了一孩的教育费用、一孩对于父母生育二孩的态度等因素的显著影响。最后针对影响因素提出了相关建议,希望通过这些手段可以刺激“全面二孩”政策更好地实施。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the problems of the aging population and the shortage of labor resources, China began to implement the policy of "all-around two-child" in 2016, hoping to adjust the fertility situation of our country. Improve the age structure of the population. After the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, how will people's desire to have children change, how will the age structure of the population develop, and what are the factors that affect their willingness to reproduce again? This is worth a systematic study. Taking Hebei Province as an example, this paper first investigates the willingness of one-child families to bear children after the implementation of the "all-around two-child" policy. Then the population of Hebei Province is forecasted by questionnaire data and other relevant data using the cohort factor method and the population prediction software padis-int. Finally, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the desire of the second child by using the binary discrete choice model. It is found that after the promulgation of the policy of "comprehensive second child", There has been no significant increase in the willingness to give birth to two children in Hebei Province. In Hebei Province, the future population aging is still very serious. The expected effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy is not satisfactory. Through the analysis of influencing factors, it is found that whether to give birth to a second child is mainly due to the cost of education of one child. Finally, the author puts forward some relevant suggestions on the influencing factors, hoping to stimulate the implementation of the "all-around second child" policy through these measures.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21

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