中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局

发布时间：2018-03-19 13:15

本文选题：城市群　切入点：人口老龄化　出处：《地理学报》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：老龄化和城市化是当今世界面临的两大人口问题。城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的空间组织形态,是老龄化的特殊区域。本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,综合应用地理探测器和变异系数等方法,清晰地刻画了中国20个城市群人口老龄化的空间格局及其变化特征,审视了人口老龄化变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000年中国城市群人口老龄化平均水平为7.32%,其中12个城市群的人口属于成年型,到2010年时人口老龄化平均水平已上升为9.00%,除珠三角与宁夏沿黄城市群外,其余18个城市群均步入了老年型人口,表现出明显的水平升级与类型替变态势。(2)老龄化高值、较高值区域不断向内陆城市群跃迁。(3)城市群老龄化的增量和增速存在显著的区域差异,老龄化水平的低值区和高值区增量少、增速慢,而较低值、中值和较高值区增量多、增速快。总体上表现出区域性城市群——国家级城市群——地区性城市群老龄化速度递减的态势。(4)在城市群内部,老龄化分布格局表现出隆升—塌缩并存的现象。国家级城市群内部老龄化分布格局从隆升结构向塌缩结构转变,城市群中心区人口老龄化水平降低;而地区性城市群和区域性城市群内部老龄化分布格局则从均质结构向隆升结构转变,中心区人口老龄化水平上升。(5)城市群人口老龄化是内外因素综合影响的结果,基期老龄化程度、人口年龄结构替变和人口流动性是主导性因素。其中人口年龄结构的普遍性抬升是城市群老龄化升级与类型替变的关键,低龄人口迁入到城市群对人口老龄化则起到"稀释作用",城市群发育阶段不同引致的聚集和扩散效应对老龄化则起到诱导作用。
[Abstract]:Aging and urbanization are two major population problems facing the world today. Urban agglomeration is the spatial organization form of urban development to mature stage, and is a special area of aging. This paper is based on the national census data of 2000 and 2010. The spatial pattern and variation characteristics of aging population of 20 urban agglomerations in China are clearly described by means of geographical detector and coefficient of variation. The results show that the average aging level of Chinese urban agglomerations in 2000 is 7.32, of which 12 urban agglomerations belong to adult population. By 2010, the average level of population aging had risen to 9.00. Except for the Pearl River Delta and Ningxia Urban agglomeration along the Yellow River, the other 18 urban agglomerations had entered the old type population, showing an obvious level upgrading and changing trend of type. There are significant regional differences in the increment and growth rate of aging of urban agglomeration. The increment of low and high value areas of aging level is small and the growth rate is slow, but the increment of lower value, median value and higher value area is more. In general, it shows that the aging rate of regional urban agglomeration-national urban agglomeration-regional urban agglomeration is decreasing in the urban agglomeration. The aging distribution pattern shows the coexistence of uplift and collapse. The internal aging distribution pattern of the national urban agglomeration changes from the uplift structure to the collapse structure, and the aging level of the population in the urban agglomeration central area decreases. However, the internal aging distribution pattern of regional urban agglomeration and regional urban agglomeration has changed from homogeneous structure to uplift structure, and the aging level of population in central district is rising. The aging of urban agglomeration population is the result of internal and external factors. Among them, the universal uplift of population age structure is the key to the upgrading of urban agglomeration and the change of population type. The migration of the young population to the urban agglomeration has a dilution effect on the aging population, and the agglomeration and diffusion effect caused by the different development stages of the urban agglomeration can induce the aging.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41261042)~~
【分类号】：C924.24

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