我国人口年龄结构与劳动收入份额变动的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 06:45

本文选题：人口年龄结构转变　切入点：少儿抚养比　出处：《江西社会科学》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用我国1990—2014年省级面板数据研究人口年龄结构变化对劳动收入份额影响的实证结果表明:少儿抚养比与劳动收入份额呈正相关关系,老人抚养比与劳动收入份额呈负相关关系,人口年龄结构的转变能够解释我国最近20年劳动收入份额的下降。从要素禀赋角度来说,人口年龄结构转变的前期主要是生育率和少儿抚养比下降,劳动年龄人口数量和比重升高,这导致劳动供给丰裕程度相对增加,劳动价格大幅下降,从而劳动收入份额下降;后期主要是预期寿命和老人抚养比升高,这导致储蓄率升高,资本供给丰裕程度相对增加,但资本价格并没有相应下降,因而资本收入份额升高,劳动收入份额下降。
[Abstract]:Using the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2014 in China, the empirical results show that the dependency ratio of children is positively correlated with the share of labor income, while the dependency ratio of the elderly is negatively correlated with the share of labor income. The change in the age structure of the population can explain the decline in the share of labor income in China in the last 20 years. From the perspective of factor endowment, the early stages of the change in the age structure of the population are mainly the decline in fertility and child-support ratio. The increase in the number and proportion of the working-age population has led to a relative increase in the abundance of labour supply, a sharp decline in labour prices, and a decline in the share of labour income; the increase in life expectancy and dependency ratio for the elderly has led to an increase in the savings rate, The abundance of capital supply is relatively increasing, but the capital price does not decrease correspondingly, so the share of capital income increases and the share of labor income drops.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;中央财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“我国教育机会不平等程度的测算、分解与政策设计研究”(71603029) 教育部人文社会科学青年项目“基于机会公平视角的财政支出对居民收入分配影响的理论与实证研究”(12YJC790033) 北京市社科基金青年项目“北京市高等教育扩张与教育机会公平问题研究”(14JYC028);北京市社科基金项目“北京市人口转变与经济发展方式转型关系研究”(14JGB083)
【分类号】：C924.2;F249.24

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