城市人口、收入与商品住宅

发布时间：2018-03-25 02:23

本文选题：住宅需求　切入点：住宅供给　出处：《辽宁大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：在对相关文献进行梳理和回顾的基础上,本文紧紧围绕着人口、收入与商品住宅供求这一中心线索,对一系列重要的理论与实践问题展开了理论分析与实证研究。本文从宏观的角度,规范并实证地分析了商品住宅供求的影响因素以及宏观经济对住宅价格的影响,分别分析了人口对住宅需求和供给的影响以及收入对住宅需求和供给的影响,并在论文的最后提出了政策性建议。首先,本文理论分析了影响住宅供求的因素,并对其中的主要因素价格、人口和收入以及利润进行了实证分析。通过对1993-2008年的数据实证分析发现,住宅价格、人口和收入对住宅需求有很大的影响,并且存在着量价齐升的局面,这主要是因为我国现阶段的城市人口和收入在同时增加。同时必须指出的是,人口虽然对住宅需求有一定的影响,但是这种影响存在着一定的滞后性。由于需求的增加,住宅供给也在增加,不过住宅供给的增加有其自身的规律。住宅供给的增加虽然同需求存在着一定的关联,但是住宅供给的增加主要取决于利润,当利润大幅度上升时,住宅供给也大幅度上升。其次,本文分析了宏观经济对住宅价格的影响。本文从理论分析着手,采用四象限两市场模型,分析了宏观经济变化对住宅资本市场和住宅使用市场的影响。然后,采用流量——存量模型,使用面板数据,实证地分析了1993-2008年16个省市的宏观经济与住宅价格的关系,结果表明,宏观经济因素对住宅价格的影响是明显的。在影响住宅价格的因素中,价格滞后因素对价格的影响最大,由此可知住宅市场存在着一定的不完全性；其次是收入,近些年来我国居民收入的提高直接促使我国住宅价格的上升；再次是人口,由于我国城市新增人口大部分来自农村,所以,新增人口对住宅价格的影响存在着一定的滞后,同时也存在着一定的持续。再次,本文分析了人口对住宅需求的影响。本文从曼昆——威尔模型入手,从理论上分析了人口与住宅需求的关系,人口的变化对住宅需求的影响以及这种影响的传导。然后实证地分析了人口的年龄结构和家庭数量对住宅需求的影响,得到了与前人不同的结论。本部分最后分析了城市人口与住宅供给,从理论分析到实证证明,都发现人口对住宅供给存在着很大的影响,并且脉冲响应函数证明了这种影响存在着一定的持续,方差分解证明了商品住宅供给的变化量中人口影响的比例。本文最后分析的是收入与住宅价格的关系。这一部分首先分析了新房房价收入比及其影响因素,进而对新房房价收入比用ECM模型做动态分析,发现新房房价收入比与收入显著相关。然后采用面板数据分析方法,分析了永久收入与住宅需求和住宅供给的关系。实证分析发现住宅需求不仅与当期收入相关,更与连续几年的收入相关,不仅前期的收入会影响到住宅需求,未来的收入对当期住宅需求同样有影响,这一点与前人分析相符。关于永久收入与住宅供给的关系,分析发现我国居民的永久收入对住宅供给有显著影响。由于居民收入的提高推动了住宅需求,进而推动了住宅价格,因此,也导致住宅供给的增加。同时发现,住宅供给有明显的惯性。针对本文的分析,本文提出了以下政策建议：大量提供商品住宅,数量应与(潜在)需求一致地甚至稍多一些建设；商品住宅的户型结构应当与(潜在)需求一致,这样才不至于供给与需求之间存在结构性失衡；对投机行为要予以严格地限制；其它供给方式的住宅供给数量要大幅度提高。
[Abstract]:Based on the review of the relevant literature, this paper closely around the population, income and housing supply and demand clues of the center, carried out theoretical analysis and Empirical Study on a series of important theoretical and practical problem in this paper. From the macroscopic angle, the influence factors of commercial housing supply and demand and macroeconomic on housing the price of the standard and empirical analysis respectively, analyzes the influence of population on the demand and supply of housing and income on the demand and supply of housing, and finally put forward policy suggestions.
First, this paper analyzes the influence factors of supply and demand theory, and the main factors including price, population and income and profits for the empirical analysis. Based on the empirical data of 1993-2008 years of analysis, housing price, population and income have a great influence on the housing demand, and there is a volume and price situation, this is mainly because the present stage of our country city population and income at the same time increase. At the same time, it must be pointed out that although the population has a certain influence on the housing demand, but this effect has a certain lag. Due to the increasing demand, housing supply has increased, but the increase of housing supply has its own rules the increase in housing supply. Although the same demand have a certain relevance, but the increase of housing supply mainly depends on the profits, when profits increased significantly, housing supply also increases.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact on housing prices. Based on the theory analysis, the four quadrant two market model, analyzes the impact of macroeconomic changes using the capital market and the market for residential housing. Then, the stock flow model, using panel data, empirical analysis of the relation between the macro economy and. Housing prices in 1993-2008 years in 16 provinces. The results showed that the influence of macroeconomic factors on housing prices is obvious. The influencing factors of house price, the price of the largest lag factors impact on prices, what is the housing market has not completely certain; the second is that income in recent years, the income of Chinese residents the increase directly promotes the rise housing prices in China; again is because of China's population, most of the new city population from rural areas, so the effect of population on housing prices. There is a certain lag, and there is a certain persistence.
Again, this paper analyzes the impact of population on housing demand. This article from the Mankiw - will model starting from the theoretical analysis of the relationship between population and housing demand, the change of population impact on housing demand and the impact of the transmission. Then the paper analyzes the influence of the number of years of age structure and household population of residential demand that was different from the former conclusion. This part finally analyzes the city population and housing supply, from the theoretical analysis to the empirical proof that there is a great impact on the population and housing supply, the impulse response function proved that the impact of the presence of certain continuous, variance decomposition proved the amount of population changes in the supply of commercial housing effect of proportion.
At the end of this paper is the analysis of the relationship between income and housing price. This part first analyzes the new house price income ratio and its influence factors, and then to the house price income ratio dynamic analysis with ECM model, found the new housing price to income ratio was significantly correlated with income. Then using the panel data analysis method, analyzes the relationship between the permanent income and housing demand and housing supply. Empirical analysis shows that housing demand is not only related to the current income, more associated with several years of income, the income not only affects housing demand, future income has the same effect on the current housing demand, this and previous analysis match. About the relations between the permanent income and housing supply. The analysis found that the permanent income of Chinese residents has a significant impact on housing supply. Due to the increase of the residents' income boost domestic demand, thus promoting the housing prices, because of this, too It leads to an increase in the supply of housing. It is also found that the housing supply has a significant inertia.
According to the analysis, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: to provide a large number of commercial housing, the number should be consistent with the needs of (potential) or even more construction; apartment layout structure of commercial residential buildings should be consistent with (potential) demand, so as not to there is a structural imbalance between supply and demand; the speculation should be strictly the number of other restrictions; the supply of housing supply should be greatly enhanced.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F293.3;C924.2;F126.2;F224

【相似文献】