老龄化冲击下的主权债务风险

发布时间：2018-04-01 21:25

  本文选题：老龄化　切入点：主权债务　出处：《世界经济》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文系统地研究了人口结构对主权债务风险的影响。人口结构"老龄化"与老年人口"高龄化"是本轮债务危机的重要诱因,"银色浪潮"会导致政府的偿债能力和偿还意愿降低,进而推高了主权信用风险。本文利用世代交叠分析框架构建了基于财政收支的缺口模型和基于违约概率的风险模型,从理论上推导出人口老龄化影响债务风险的内在机制,并运用面板数据双向固定效应模型研究发现,人口"老龄化"对主权债务风险存在显著的正向影响,"第二次人口红利"并未提高主权债务的可持续性,"高龄化"相对于"老龄化"将带来更大的债务风险。
[Abstract]:This paper systematically studies the influence of population structure on sovereign debt risk. The aging of population structure and the aging of the elderly population are the important inducements of the debt crisis, and the "silver wave" will lead to the government's solvency. And reduced willingness to repay, In this paper, the gap model based on fiscal revenue and expenditure and the risk model based on default probability are constructed, and the internal mechanism of the impact of population aging on debt risk is deduced theoretically. And using the panel data bidirectional fixed effect model research found, The aging of the population has a significant positive impact on sovereign debt risk. The second demographic dividend does not improve the sustainability of sovereign debt, and "aging" will bring greater debt risk than "aging".
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CGJ027) 北京市社会科学基金青年项目(15JGC143)、北京市社会科学基金研究基地重点项目(14JDJGA020) 对外经济贸易大学校级特色项目(TS3-03)以及对外经济贸易大学中国企业“走出去”协同创新中心科研项目(201502YY003A)的资助
【分类号】：C924.24;F812.5
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本文编号：1697376