上海第一代独生子女父母对于个人未来养老方式的预估及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 18:46

本文选题：独生子女父母　切入点：居家养老　出处：《浙江学刊》2017年02期

【摘要】：上海的养老发展以"9073"为指引,然而很少有研究探讨"9073"的养老配置是否与老年人对自身未来养老的预估相匹配。本文以上海市11个区共计516名55-65岁独生子女父母为样本,借助潜在类别分析探索其个人预估养老方式的人群分类;并用多项逻辑回归的方法探索每类人群的子女资源和实际的养老准备是否有显著差异。分析发现四类人群:平衡预期(即认为每种养老方式都有些可能);专业照护倾向(即倾向于使用上门保姆,社区服务,以及机构服务);居家照护倾向(即倾向于受配偶兄妹子女等照顾);政府依赖(即寄希望于社区服务及机构养老)。相较于专业照护倾向,居家照护倾向的人群偏年轻,教育偏低,与孩子关系更亲密,认为子女应为父母尽更多的责任,但也同时更担心子女因此受累。而平衡预期人群教育水平偏低,对于自己对照护的需求并不清晰,且对未来的问题采取回避的态度。"9073"的宏观规划与个体的养老方式预期并不匹配;很大一部分老年人对自己未来的养老方式欠缺理性的预估。
[Abstract]:The development of the aged in Shanghai is guided by "9073". However, there are few studies on whether the allocation of the aged in "9073" matches the prediction of the elderly for their future.In this paper, 516 parents of 55-65 years old only-child parents in 11 districts of Shanghai were taken as samples to explore the population classification of their personal estimated old-age support by means of potential category analysis.The method of multiple logical regression was used to explore whether there were significant differences between the children's resources and the actual old-age preparation of each group of people.The analysis found that there were four groups of people: balanced expectation (that is, that each form of old-age care may be possible); professional care tendency (that is, tend to use home care, community service,And institutional services; home-based care tendencies (i.e. tend to be cared for by spouses, siblings, children, etc.); government dependence (i.e., reliance on community services and institutional care for the elderly).Compared with professional caregiving, home-based caregivers tend to be younger, less educated, more intimate with their children, and more concerned that their children should do more of their parents' responsibilities, but also worry more about their children's involvement.On the other hand, the education level of the balanced prospective population is low, the demand for care is not clear, and the attitude of avoiding the future problems is taken. The macro planning of "9073" does not match with the expectation of individual old-age care style;A large proportion of the elderly lack rational estimates of their future pension patterns.
【作者单位】：华东理工大学社会工作学系;
【分类号】：C913.6;C924.21

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