中国人口抚养比上升对劳动者报酬的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 22:15

本文选题：老年抚养比 + 总抚养比　；参考：《辽宁大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：人口抚养比是衡量人口结构变化的重要指标,包括老年抚养比、少儿抚养比、总抚养比。由于计划生育的作用,少儿抚养比不断下降。老年抚养比是衡量人口老龄化程度的重要指标,老年抚养比持续上升,社会和家庭的养老负担越来越重；总抚养比是反映人口红利的重要指标,一旦总抚养比上升,中国将由人口红利期进入人口负债期。本文专门研究中国人口抚养比上升对劳动者报酬的影响,主要包括老年抚养比上升和总抚养比上升共同作用对劳动者报酬的影响。按国际标准中国2000年进入老龄化社会,2010年老年抚养比已经上升为11%,并且在未来还会继续上升。从生产角度来看,社会财富主要由处于劳动年龄的就业人口创造的,老年抚养比上升意味着劳动力在总人口中的比重降低,老年人口比例越来越高。当老年抚养比上升到一定程度,使总抚养比由下降转为上升时,意味着经济由人口红利期进入人口负债期,经济增长开始减速。劳动者报酬是GDP的一部分,因而受到老年抚养比上升的间接影响；另外总抚养比上升直接影响制约劳动者报酬增长,两者存在明显的统计相关性并通过了检验,而老年抚养比不断上升,少儿抚养抚养比下降,总抚养比上升越来越由老年抚养比来主导,则老年抚养比上升对劳动者报酬增长的负作用将越来越明显。从分配的角度来看,由于社会和家庭需要承担养老的代际责任,老年抚养比上升意味着更多的资金用于老年人,社会养老医疗的缴费率提高,家庭养老支出也在增长,社会财富转移给老年人养老支出的部分在增长,如果其他条件不变,则劳动者报酬占GDP的份额和家庭可支配收入相对下降。分析人口抚养比上升对劳动者报酬的影响因素、途径及效果,最终目的是通过中介途径条件的改变缓解抚养比上升对劳动者报酬增长和生活水平提高的制约,保障劳动者的报酬及生活水平不下降,避免老年贫困。为减轻人口抚养比过高对劳动者报酬的影响,提出的对策主要包括：稳健的人口政策,减缓老年抚养比上升速度,有利于我国更好地利用人口红利期积累财富；公平的收入分配政策,逐步提高劳动者报酬的比例；健全劳动力市场和工资增长机制；健全社会保障制度,保障劳动者晚年生活；加快经济增长方式转变；加强法制建设和文化引导等。
[Abstract]:Population dependency ratio is an important index to measure the change of population structure, including old age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio and total dependency ratio.Due to the role of family planning, the child-rearing ratio is declining.The old-age dependency ratio is an important index to measure the aging degree of the population. As the old-age dependency ratio continues to rise, the social and family old-age burden becomes heavier and heavier, and the total dependency ratio is an important indicator of the demographic dividend, once the total dependency ratio rises,China will move from demographic dividend period to population debt period.This paper focuses on the effects of the rising dependency ratio of the Chinese population on the wages of workers, including the effects of the rising dependency ratio of the elderly and the total dependency ratio on the wages of the workers.According to international standards, China entered an aging society in 2000, the old-age dependency ratio has risen to 11% in 2010, and will continue to rise in the future.From the point of view of production, social wealth is mainly created by the employed population of working age. The rising dependency ratio of the elderly means that the proportion of labor force in the total population is lower and the proportion of the elderly population is higher and higher.When the old age dependency ratio rises to a certain extent, so that the total dependency ratio changes from declining to rising, it means that the economy from the demographic dividend period into the population debt period, economic growth began to slow down.Workers' compensation is a part of GDP, which is indirectly affected by the increase of dependency ratio in old age. In addition, the increase of total dependency ratio has a direct effect on the increase of workers' remuneration, which has obvious statistical correlation and has passed the test.However, the elderly dependency ratio is rising, the child dependency ratio is decreasing, and the total dependency ratio is more and more dominated by the old age dependency ratio, then the increase of the old age dependency ratio will have more and more negative effect on the increase of workers' pay.From the perspective of distribution, because society and families need to bear the intergenerational responsibility for the aged, the rising old-age dependency ratio means that more funds are spent on the elderly, the contribution rate of social old-age medical care is increasing, and the family old-age expenditure is also increasing.The share of social wealth transferred to the elderly is growing, and if other conditions remain unchanged, the share of workers in GDP and household disposable income are falling.This paper analyzes the influencing factors, approaches and effects of the rising population dependency ratio on the workers' remuneration. The ultimate aim is to alleviate the constraints of the rising dependency ratio on the increase of the workers' remuneration and the improvement of their living standards through the change of the conditions of the intermediary channels.To ensure that the wages and living standards of workers do not fall, to avoid poverty in old age.In order to reduce the influence of the high dependency ratio on the workers' remuneration, the countermeasures are as follows: steady population policy, slowing down the rising speed of the old dependency ratio, which is conducive to making better use of the population dividend period to accumulate wealth in our country;Fair income distribution policy to gradually increase the proportion of workers' remuneration; improve the labor market and wage growth mechanism; improve the social security system to ensure the livelihood of workers in old age; accelerate the transformation of economic growth mode;Strengthen the construction of legal system and cultural guidance.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F249.2;C924.2

【引证文献】