基于历次人口普查的西安市人口分布预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 17:21

本文选题：人口分布预测 + 人口普查数据　；参考：《西北大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年06期

【摘要】：城市人口分布预测对城市人口政策制定及配套设施规划意义重大。研究基于西安市第二至第六次街区人口普查数据,使用人口灰色预测和城区36维空间扩展预测等方法,直观展示了2020年大西安中心市区人口分布态势。预测表明,2020年大西安核心区仍将维持人口高密度状态,城区继续向周边郊区蔓延,圈层式和飞地式扩展的功能区和产业园区周围将聚拢人口和服务性工商业,形成片、轴、圈相叠合的庞大混合功能区;大西安人口分布变动的影响因素包括人口增长、新型城镇化、产业园区规划、居住和通勤改变、城市等级提升等。该研究有助于认识城市人口分布和空间演化规律,研究结论可作为城市规划、公共服务、商业选址、政策制定的决策参考依据。
[Abstract]:The prediction of urban population distribution is of great significance to urban population policy making and supporting facilities planning.Based on the data of the second to sixth district census of Xi'an, the population distribution situation in the central urban area of Xi'an in 2020 was intuitively demonstrated by using the methods of population grey prediction and urban area 36 dimensional spatial expansion prediction.The forecast shows that in 2020, the core area of Grand Xi'an will still maintain a high density of population, the urban areas will continue to spread to the surrounding suburbs, and the functional areas and industrial parks will gather together the population and service industry and commerce around the circle and enclave type expansion, forming pieces and axes.The factors that influence the population distribution of Xi'an include population growth, new urbanization, industrial park planning, residential and commuting changes, urban upgrading and so on.This study is helpful to understand the laws of urban population distribution and spatial evolution, and the conclusions can be used as a reference for urban planning, public services, commercial location, and policy making.
【作者单位】：延安大学经济管理学院;陕西师范大学国际商学院;陕西省社会科学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(10BSH006) 陕西省高水平大学建设专项资金资助项目(2013SXTS07) 延安大学博士科研基金资助项目(YDBK2015-12)
【分类号】：C924.2

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