渝东北人口承载力研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 02:02

本文选题：渝东北 + 人口承载力　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：渝东北以三峡库区为主体,包括11个区县.虽然自重庆直辖以来,渝东北地区在环境、经济和社会发展方面取得了不小的成就,但总体发展水平仍然不高:渝东北地区仍有大片的贫困地区,人多地少,生态环境问题突出,经济、社会总体指标仍处于重庆下游水平。这些问题归根结底是由于脆弱的环境承载了过多的人口,因此引导超载人口有序转移成为渝东北可持续发展的重要保障。为了实现渝东北地区的人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的可持续发展,根据渝东北的发展水平和发展潜力,合理的计算渝东北地区人口承载力成为实现地区可持续发展战略的重要内容。本文根据重庆市人民政府对渝东北地区作为限制开发区的功能定位,通过统计资料中的相关数据,对渝东北11个区县(包括万州区、梁平县、城口县、丰都县、垫江县、忠县、开县、云阳县、奉节县、巫山县、巫溪县)的人口、资源、环境、经济社会的发展现状,所存在的问题与发展趋势进行了归纳总结。并选取了十一个具有代表性的资源、环境、经济和社会发展指标,通过与各区县的常住人口进行相关性分析,得到与常住人口数相关程度最高的三个指标,分别为耕地面积、全社会固定资产投资和教育支出。通过建立回归模型与适度人口公式,以目前重庆现在人口数为合理基数,计算得出渝东北各区县的适度人口。通过对人口状况进行静态和动态的分析,结果表明与将来渝东北地区都面临严重的人口超载问题,并分析了影响各区县人口承载力的因素。根据限制开发区的要求,提出了要提高渝东北资源承载力、经济承载力、社会承载力,必须要通过保护耕地资源,完善粮食市场;控制人口增长速度;引导超载人口向承载能力大的一圈地区流动并有条件的发展小城镇;加大社会固定资产投资力度;发展生态农业和集约化的规模农业;加强基础设施建设;加强渝东北地区的教育力度;加强社会医疗保障体系等能有效提高渝东北人口承载力的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Northeast Chongqing to the three Gorges Reservoir area as the main body, including 11 districts and counties.Although the northeast of Chongqing has made great achievements in environmental, economic and social development since Chongqing came under its direct jurisdiction, the overall level of development is still not high: there are still large areas of poverty in the northeast of Chongqing, with a large number of people and less land,Ecological environmental problems are prominent, the overall economic and social indicators are still in the lower reaches of Chongqing.These problems in the final analysis are due to the fragile environment carrying too many people, so guiding the orderly transfer of overloaded population has become an important guarantee for the sustainable development of Northeast Chongqing.In order to realize the sustainable development of population, resources, environment, economy and society in northeast Chongqing, according to the development level and potential of northeast Chongqing,Reasonable calculation of population carrying capacity in northeast Chongqing is an important part of sustainable development strategy.Based on the function orientation of Chongqing Municipal people's Government as a restricted development zone in northeast Chongqing, the paper analyzes 11 counties in northeast Chongqing (including Wanzhou District, Liangping County, Chengkou County, Fengdu County, Dianjiang County, Zhongxian County) through the relevant data.Kaixian, Yunyang, Fengjie, Wushan, Wuxi) the population, resources, environment, economic and social development status, existing problems and development trends are summarized.Eleven representative indicators of resources, environment, economy and social development are selected. Through the correlation analysis with the resident population in each district and county, the three indicators with the highest correlation with the number of resident population are obtained, respectively, the cultivated land area.Investment in fixed assets and expenditure on education throughout society.Through the establishment of regression model and moderate population formula, taking the present population of Chongqing as the reasonable base, the appropriate population of each district and county in northeast Chongqing is calculated.Through the static and dynamic analysis of the population situation, the results show that there are serious problems of population overload in the northeast of Chongqing in the future, and the factors affecting the population carrying capacity of each district and county are analyzed.According to the requirements of restricted development zones, it is proposed that in order to improve the carrying capacity of resources, economy and society of northeast Chongqing, we must improve the grain market by protecting cultivated land resources, and control the speed of population growth.Guide overloaded population to flow to a large carrying capacity area and develop small towns with conditions; increase investment in social fixed assets; develop ecological agriculture and intensive scale agriculture; strengthen infrastructure construction;Strengthening the education in Northeast Chongqing and strengthening the social medical security system can effectively improve the carrying capacity of population in Northeast Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2

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